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Sporting Ben Arous v US Tataouine

Sporting Ben Arous

2–2Full time

US Tataouine

Ligue 2 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Sporting Ben Arous 2–2 US Tataouine SPORTING BEN AROUS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting Ben Arous win~~44%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.717

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.710

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting Ben Arous win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sporting Ben Arous was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–31–25
1′KICK-OFF Sporting Ben Arous v US Tataouine
3′Much as we predicted: Sporting Ben Arous was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–31–25
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Sporting Ben Arous 0–1 US Tataouine
36′M. Marsni scores for US Tataouine on 23′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–25–64
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Sporting Ben Arous win: 44% at kick-off, 11% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' US Tataouine win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Sporting Ben Arous win 11%)
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Sporting Ben Arous win: 44% at kick-off, 41% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Sporting Ben Arous win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was US Tataouine win 24%)
37′M. Marsni scores for US Tataouine on 23′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–25–64
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Sporting Ben Arous win: 44% at kick-off, 11% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' US Tataouine win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Sporting Ben Arous win 11%)
39′⚽ GOAL · 23' Sporting Ben Arous 0–1 US Tataouine · M. Marsni
45′We said Sporting Ben Arous at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–24–67
45′HALF-TIME Sporting Ben Arous 0–1 US Tataouine
46′SECOND HALF Sporting Ben Arous 0–1 US Tataouine
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Sporting Ben Arous win: 44% at kick-off, 8% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' US Tataouine win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Sporting Ben Arous win 8%)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Sporting Ben Arous win: 44% at kick-off, 8% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' US Tataouine win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Sporting Ben Arous win 8%)
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Sporting Ben Arous 1–1 US Tataouine
69′⚽ GOAL · 23' Sporting Ben Arous 1–1 US Tataouine · M. Marsni
69′⚽ GOAL · 67' Sporting Ben Arous 1–1 US Tataouine
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Sporting Ben Arous 1–2 US Tataouine
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Sporting Ben Arous 2–2 US Tataouine
FTFULL TIME Sporting Ben Arous 2–2 US Tataouine
FTSporting Ben Arous 2–2 US Tataouine · Sporting Ben Arous win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sporting Ben Arous win44%

Draw32%

US Tataouine win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sporting Ben Arous

US Tataouine

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Sporting Ben Arous	2	+2	3
17	US Tataouine	2	−2	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting ben arous winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

44% The market39%

Us44%

~~Market~~39%

We make Sporting Ben Arous a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sporting ben arous win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Ben Arous win	44%	39%	+5
Draw	32%	31%	0
US Tataouine win	25%	30%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	31%	35%	−4
Both teams to score	37%	43%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	58%	60%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	14%	17%	−4
Sporting Ben Arous or draw	75%	70%	+5
Sporting Ben Arous clean sheet	46%	–	–
US Tataouine clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.8%

0123450 15.2 10.7 4.5 1 15.8 13.2 5.0 2 9.5 7.3 2.9 3 3.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Ben Arous down, US Tataouine across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,483 Ligue 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting Ben Arous at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). US Tataouine away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Sporting Ben Arous, 0.79 for US Tataouine. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UST 1–0 SPO · SPO 1–2 UST

Form · last six in Ligue 2

SPORTING BEN AROUS

LDLWLW0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 6–0 · 1–2 · 3–0

US TATAOUINE

WWWLLW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	EM Mahdia	3	+2	7
2	Mégrine	3	+2	7
3	Redeyef	3	+5	6
4	Korba	3	+3	6
5	AS Kasserine	2	+2	6
6	JS Kairouanaise	2	+2	6
7	M'saken	3	+1	5
8	Sfax Railways	3	+1	5
9	AS Soliman	3	+2	4
10	Stade Soussien	3	+2	4
11	Ksour Essef	2	+1	4
12	CS Chebba	3	0	4
13	BS Bouhajla	3	−2	4
14	Sporting Ben Arous	2	+2	3
15	Kalaâ Sport	2	0	3
16	Jendouba Sport	2	0	3
17	US Tataouine	2	−2	3
18	Bouchamma	2	−2	3
19	Stade Gabesien	2	0	2
20	Béni-Khalled	3	−1	2
21	Ariana	2	−1	1
22	Olympique du Kef	2	−1	1
23	AS Gabes	3	−2	1
24	AS Agareb	2	−3	1
25	Moknine	2	−3	1
26	Kerkennah	2	−2	0
27	CO Medenine	2	−2	0
28	EGS Gafsa	2	−4	0