Sporting Ben Arous v Mégrine prediction · Ligue 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sporting Ben ArousDrawMégrine

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Sporting Ben Arous 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting Ben Arous are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting Ben Arous 49%, draw 28%, Mégrine 23%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Sporting Ben Arous v MégrineBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

Sporting Ben Arous win49%

Draw28%

Mégrine win23%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting Ben Arous

Mégrine

8Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Mégrine	4	+4	10
16	Sporting Ben Arous	4	+2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting ben arous winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Sporting Ben Arous a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting Ben Arous v Mégrine~~1.43 – 0.90

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 10~~16 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Ben Arous win	49%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Mégrine win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Sporting Ben Arous or draw	77%	–	–
Sporting Ben Arous clean sheet	41%	–	–
Mégrine clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 10.7 8.3 4.0 1 13.4 12.7 5.5 2 9.8 8.6 3.9 3 4.7 4.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Ben Arous down, Mégrine across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,505 Ligue 2 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting Ben Arous at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Mégrine away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Sporting Ben Arous, 0.90 for Mégrine. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SPO 1–1 MEG · MEG 1–0 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept

SPORTING BEN AROUS

LWDD1–2 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–0

MÉGRINE

WDWW2–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AS Kasserine	4	+6	12
2	Mégrine	4	+4	10
3	Korba	4	+4	9
4	EM Mahdia	4	+2	8
5	M'saken	4	+2	8
6	Ksour Essef	4	+2	8
7	CS Chebba	4	+1	7
8	Jendouba Sport	4	+1	7
9	US Tataouine	4	−1	7
10	Bouchamma	4	−1	7
11	Redeyef	4	+4	6
12	Kalaâ Sport	4	+1	6
13	Sfax Railways	4	+1	6
14	JS Kairouanaise	4	0	6
15	AS Soliman	4	+2	5
16	Sporting Ben Arous	4	+2	5
17	Ariana	4	+1	5
18	Stade Gabesien	4	0	5
19	BS Bouhajla	4	−2	5
20	Stade Soussien	4	0	4
21	Olympique du Kef	4	−1	4
22	EGS Gafsa	4	−2	3
23	AS Agareb	4	−3	3
24	Béni-Khalled	4	−2	2
25	AS Gabes	4	−3	1
26	Kerkennah	4	−3	1
27	Moknine	4	−7	1
28	CO Medenine	4	−8	0