Home › Football › Ligue 2 › Sfax Railways v AS Soliman

Sfax Railways v AS Soliman

Sfax Railways

2–2Full time

AS Soliman

Ligue 2 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Sfax Railways 2–2 AS Soliman SFAX RAILWAYS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sfax Railways win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.884

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sfax Railways win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sfax Railways 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–26–19
1′KICK-OFF Sfax Railways v AS Soliman
26′A goal for AS Soliman on 26′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–27–51
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Sfax Railways 0–1 AS Soliman
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Sfax Railways win: 55% at kick-off, 21% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' AS Soliman win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Sfax Railways win 21%)
27′We said Sfax Railways at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–28–52
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 20–28–53
31′We said Sfax Railways at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–28–53
34′H. Gouider scores for AS Soliman on 25′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–28–54
36′Sfax Railways score on 35′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 45–37–18
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Sfax Railways 1–1 AS Soliman
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Sfax Railways win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Sfax Railways win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was AS Soliman win 18%)
40′38′: H. Omri on the scoresheet for Sfax Railways, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 44–39–18
41′We said Sfax Railways at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 43–39–18
43′AS Soliman find the net on 42′. 1–2. 1–2 · 15–28–57
43′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 15–28–57
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Sfax Railways 1–2 AS Soliman
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Sfax Railways win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' AS Soliman win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Sfax Railways win 15%)
44′We said Sfax Railways at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–28–58
45′AS Soliman ahead on 40′ through R. Nacef. 1–2. 1–2 · 14–28–58
45′HALF-TIME Sfax Railways 1–2 AS Soliman
46′SECOND HALF Sfax Railways 1–2 AS Soliman
57′We said Sfax Railways at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–26–65
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Sfax Railways win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
70′We said Sfax Railways at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
73′A goal for AS Soliman on 72′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–97
73′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–3–97
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Sfax Railways 1–3 AS Soliman
74′GOAL DISALLOWED · 74' AS Soliman
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Sfax Railways 1–3 AS Soliman
80′GOAL DISALLOWED · 80' AS Soliman
81′A goal for Sfax Railways on 81′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 14–80–7
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Sfax Railways 2–2 AS Soliman
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Sfax Railways win: 55% at kick-off, 14% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 80% (was AS Soliman win 7%)
83′Sfax Railways are down to ten from 83′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–2 · 11–84–5
83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Sfax Railways
86′M. Hbiri scores for Sfax Railways on 80′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 8–88–4
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Sfax Railways win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
FTFULL TIME Sfax Railways 2–2 AS Soliman
FTSfax Railways 2–2 AS Soliman · Sfax Railways win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sfax Railways are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sfax Railways 55%, draw 26%, AS Soliman 19%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Sfax Railways v AS SolimanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Sfax Railways win55%

Draw26%

AS Soliman win19%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sfax Railways

AS Soliman

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Sfax Railways	3	+1	5
12	AS Soliman	3	+2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sfax railways winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Sfax Railways a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sfax Railways v AS Soliman~~1.58 – 0.80

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D2 L0 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 4~~11 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sfax Railways win	55%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
AS Soliman win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Sfax Railways or draw	81%	–	–
Sfax Railways clean sheet	45%	–	–
AS Soliman clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%

0123450 10.1 7.0 3.0 1 14.1 11.9 4.6 2 11.4 8.9 3.6 3 6.1 4.7 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sfax Railways down, AS Soliman across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Ligue 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Sfax Railways at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). AS Soliman away: 0.00 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Sfax Railways, 0.80 for AS Soliman. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept

SFAX RAILWAYS

WDD2–1 · 0–0 · 0–0

AS SOLIMAN

WDL4–1 · 0–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AS Kasserine	3	+5	9
2	EM Mahdia	3	+2	7
3	Mégrine	3	+2	7
4	Ksour Essef	3	+2	7
5	Redeyef	3	+5	6
6	Korba	3	+3	6
7	JS Kairouanaise	3	+1	6
8	Jendouba Sport	3	+1	6
9	Bouchamma	3	−1	6
10	M'saken	3	+1	5
11	Sfax Railways	3	+1	5
12	AS Soliman	3	+2	4
13	Sporting Ben Arous	3	+2	4
14	Stade Soussien	3	+2	4
15	Ariana	3	+1	4
16	CS Chebba	3	0	4
17	Olympique du Kef	3	0	4
18	US Tataouine	3	−2	4
19	BS Bouhajla	3	−2	4
20	Kalaâ Sport	3	−2	3
21	Béni-Khalled	3	−1	2
22	Stade Gabesien	3	−1	2
23	AS Agareb	3	−3	2
24	AS Gabes	3	−2	1
25	Kerkennah	3	−2	1
26	Moknine	3	−4	1
27	EGS Gafsa	3	−5	0
28	CO Medenine	3	−5	0