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Redeyef v Korba

Redeyef

0–1Full time

Korba

Ligue 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Redeyef 0–1 Korba REDEYEF WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Redeyef win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.897

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Redeyef win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Redeyef 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–24
1′KICK-OFF Redeyef v Korba
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Redeyef 0–1 Korba
25′E. Lachheb scores for Korba on 14′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–26–58
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Redeyef win: 47% at kick-off, 15% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Korba win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Redeyef win 15%)
45′We said Redeyef at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–26–65
45′HALF-TIME Redeyef 0–1 Korba
48′SECOND HALF Redeyef 0–1 Korba
FTFULL TIME Redeyef 0–1 Korba
FTRedeyef 0–1 Korba · Redeyef win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Redeyef win47%

Draw30%

Korba win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · redeyef winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Redeyef a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Redeyef win	47%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Korba win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Redeyef or draw	77%	–	–
Redeyef clean sheet	45%	–	–
Korba clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.2%

0123450 13.5 9.6 4.1 1 15.2 13.1 5.1 2 10.0 7.9 3.2 3 4.3 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Redeyef down, Korba across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,477 Ligue 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Redeyef at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Korba away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Redeyef, 0.81 for Korba. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KOR 3–0 RED · RED 0–0 KOR

Form · last six in Ligue 2

REDEYEF

LDWLWW2–3 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 3–0 · 3–0

KORBA

LWWDLW0–4 · 5–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Redeyef	2	+6	6
2	EM Mahdia	2	+2	6
3	AS Kasserine	2	+2	6
4	JS Kairouanaise	2	+2	6
5	AS Soliman	2	+3	4
6	Mégrine	2	+1	4
7	BS Bouhajla	2	+1	4
8	M'saken	2	+1	4
9	Sfax Railways	2	+1	4
10	Ksour Essef	2	+1	4
11	Sporting Ben Arous	2	+2	3
12	Korba	2	+2	3
13	Kalaâ Sport	2	0	3
14	Jendouba Sport	2	0	3
15	US Tataouine	2	−2	3
16	Bouchamma	2	−2	3
17	Stade Gabesien	2	0	2
18	Béni-Khalled	2	−1	1
19	Stade Soussien	2	−1	1
20	AS Gabes	2	−1	1
21	Ariana	2	−1	1
22	CS Chebba	2	−1	1
23	Olympique du Kef	2	−1	1
24	AS Agareb	2	−3	1
25	Moknine	2	−3	1
26	Kerkennah	2	−2	0
27	CO Medenine	2	−2	0
28	EGS Gafsa	2	−4	0