Moknine v Jendouba Sport prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Moknine 0–1 Jendouba Sport MOKNINE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Moknine win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.676

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Moknine win at 36%.
1′KICK-OFF Moknine v Jendouba Sport
2′Much as we predicted: Moknine was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–30–33
3′Much as we predicted: Moknine was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–30–33
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Moknine win 31%)
45′HALF-TIME Moknine 0–0 Jendouba Sport
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Moknine win 30%)
46′SECOND HALF Moknine 0–0 Jendouba Sport
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Moknine 0–1 Jendouba Sport
FTFULL TIME Moknine 0–1 Jendouba Sport
FTMoknine 0–1 Jendouba Sport · Moknine win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Moknine win36%

Draw31%

Jendouba Sport win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Moknine

Jendouba Sport

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Jendouba Sport	2	0	3
25	Moknine	2	−3	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · moknine winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Moknine a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Moknine win	36%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Jendouba Sport win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Moknine or draw	67%	–	–
Moknine clean sheet	36%	–	–
Jendouba Sport clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 13.0 11.7 6.3 2.2 1 12.5 13.7 6.7 2.4 2 7.2 7.1 3.6 3 2.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Moknine down, Jendouba Sport across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,483 Ligue 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Moknine at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Jendouba Sport away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Moknine, 1.03 for Jendouba Sport. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~JEN 1–0 MOK · MOK 2–2 JEN · MOK 1–2 JEN · JEN 0–1 MOK

Form · last six in Ligue 2

MOKNINE

WWLDLD3–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–0

JENDOUBA SPORT

WLWWLW2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	EM Mahdia	3	+2	7
2	Mégrine	3	+2	7
3	Redeyef	3	+5	6
4	Korba	3	+3	6
5	AS Kasserine	2	+2	6
6	JS Kairouanaise	2	+2	6
7	M'saken	3	+1	5
8	Sfax Railways	3	+1	5
9	AS Soliman	3	+2	4
10	Stade Soussien	3	+2	4
11	Ksour Essef	2	+1	4
12	CS Chebba	3	0	4
13	BS Bouhajla	3	−2	4
14	Sporting Ben Arous	2	+2	3
15	Kalaâ Sport	2	0	3
16	Jendouba Sport	2	0	3
17	US Tataouine	2	−2	3
18	Bouchamma	2	−2	3
19	Stade Gabesien	2	0	2
20	Béni-Khalled	3	−1	2
21	Ariana	2	−1	1
22	Olympique du Kef	2	−1	1
23	AS Gabes	3	−2	1
24	AS Agareb	2	−3	1
25	Moknine	2	−3	1
26	Kerkennah	2	−2	0
27	CO Medenine	2	−2	0
28	EGS Gafsa	2	−4	0