Mégrine v Stade Soussien prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Mégrine 2–0 Stade Soussien MÉGRINE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mégrine win~~51%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.356

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.377

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mégrine win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mégrine 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–23
1′KICK-OFF Mégrine v Stade Soussien
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Mégrine win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Mégrine 1–0 Stade Soussien
46′Mégrine score on 45′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
46′We said Mégrine at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Mégrine 1–0 Stade Soussien
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Mégrine win: 51% at kick-off, 80% now
46′SECOND HALF Mégrine 1–0 Stade Soussien
47′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 80–16–4
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Mégrine win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
67′Mégrine find the net on 66′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Mégrine 2–0 Stade Soussien
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Mégrine win: 51% at kick-off, 98% now
68′We said Mégrine at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
80′We said Mégrine at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Mégrine 2–0 Stade Soussien
FTMégrine 2–0 Stade Soussien · Mégrine win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mégrine are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mégrine 51%, draw 26%, Stade Soussien 23%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Mégrine v Stade SoussienBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Mégrine win51%

Draw26%

Stade Soussien win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mégrine

Stade Soussien

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Mégrine	3	+2	7
14	Stade Soussien	3	+2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mégrine winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

51% The market50%

Us51%

~~Market~~50%

We make Mégrine a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mégrine v Stade Soussien~~1.59 – 0.96

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W2 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~3 v 14

~~The market · Mégrine win~~50% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mégrine win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mégrine win	51%	50%	+1
Draw	26%	30%	−4
Stade Soussien win	23%	20%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	47%	38%	+9
Both teams to score	49%	42%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	72%	63%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	25%	19%	+6
Mégrine or draw	77%	80%	−3
Mégrine clean sheet	39%	–	–
Stade Soussien clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.6 7.1 3.7 1 12.0 12.2 5.6 2 9.7 9.2 4.4 3 5.2 4.9 2.4 4 2.1 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mégrine down, Stade Soussien across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Ligue 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Mégrine at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Stade Soussien away: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Mégrine, 0.96 for Stade Soussien. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept

MÉGRINE

WDW2–1 · 1–1 · 3–2

STADE SOUSSIEN

DLW2–2 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AS Kasserine	3	+5	9
2	EM Mahdia	3	+2	7
3	Mégrine	3	+2	7
4	Ksour Essef	3	+2	7
5	Redeyef	3	+5	6
6	Korba	3	+3	6
7	JS Kairouanaise	3	+1	6
8	Jendouba Sport	3	+1	6
9	Bouchamma	3	−1	6
10	M'saken	3	+1	5
11	Sfax Railways	3	+1	5
12	AS Soliman	3	+2	4
13	Sporting Ben Arous	3	+2	4
14	Stade Soussien	3	+2	4
15	Ariana	3	+1	4
16	CS Chebba	3	0	4
17	Olympique du Kef	3	0	4
18	US Tataouine	3	−2	4
19	BS Bouhajla	3	−2	4
20	Kalaâ Sport	3	−2	3
21	Béni-Khalled	3	−1	2
22	Stade Gabesien	3	−1	2
23	AS Agareb	3	−3	2
24	AS Gabes	3	−2	1
25	Kerkennah	3	−2	1
26	Moknine	3	−4	1
27	EGS Gafsa	3	−5	0
28	CO Medenine	3	−5	0