M'saken v AS Gabes prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

M'saken 2–1 AS Gabes M'SAKEN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said M'saken win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.540

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said M'saken win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: M'saken was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–33–27
1′KICK-OFF M'saken v AS Gabes
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was M'saken win 35%)
28′AS Gabes find the net on 27′. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–24–65
28′We said M'saken at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–24–65
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' M'saken 0–1 AS Gabes
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' M'saken win: 40% at kick-off, 11% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' AS Gabes win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Draw 24%)
30′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 0–1 · 10–24–66
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' M'saken win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
35′We said M'saken at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
41′A goal for M'saken on 40′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 31–47–22
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' M'saken 1–1 AS Gabes
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' M'saken win: 40% at kick-off, 31% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was AS Gabes win 22%)
45′M'saken score on 45′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 79–17–4
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' M'saken 2–1 AS Gabes
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' M'saken win: 40% at kick-off, 79% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' M'saken win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
45′HALF-TIME M'saken 2–1 AS Gabes
46′We published M'saken at 40%. Our model now makes it 79%. 2–1 · 79–17–4
46′SECOND HALF M'saken 2–1 AS Gabes
47′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 79–17–4
49′We published M'saken at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–4
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+4' M'saken win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
65′We published M'saken at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
76′We published M'saken at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' M'saken win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
84′We published M'saken at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME M'saken 2–1 AS Gabes
FTM'saken 2–1 AS Gabes · M'saken win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

M'saken are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: M'saken 40%, draw 33%, AS Gabes 27%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on M'saken v AS GabesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

M'saken win40%

Draw33%

AS Gabes win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

M'saken

AS Gabes

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	M'saken	3	+1	5
24	AS Gabes	3	−2	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · m'saken winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make M'saken a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · M'saken v AS Gabes~~1.05 – 0.79

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D2 L0 · W0 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 1~~10 v 24

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
M'saken win	40%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
AS Gabes win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	55%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
M'saken or draw	73%	–	–
M'saken clean sheet	46%	–	–
AS Gabes clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.0%

0123450 17.0 12.1 5.1 1 15.9 13.1 5.0 2 8.6 6.6 2.6 3 3.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+M'saken down, AS Gabes across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Ligue 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

M'saken at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). AS Gabes away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for M'saken, 0.79 for AS Gabes. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MSA 1–1 ASG · ASG 1–1 MSA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept

M'SAKEN

WDD2–1 · 0–0 · 2–2

AS GABES

LDL1–2 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AS Kasserine	3	+5	9
2	EM Mahdia	3	+2	7
3	Mégrine	3	+2	7
4	Ksour Essef	3	+2	7
5	Redeyef	3	+5	6
6	Korba	3	+3	6
7	JS Kairouanaise	3	+1	6
8	Jendouba Sport	3	+1	6
9	Bouchamma	3	−1	6
10	M'saken	3	+1	5
11	Sfax Railways	3	+1	5
12	AS Soliman	3	+2	4
13	Sporting Ben Arous	3	+2	4
14	Stade Soussien	3	+2	4
15	Ariana	3	+1	4
16	CS Chebba	3	0	4
17	Olympique du Kef	3	0	4
18	US Tataouine	3	−2	4
19	BS Bouhajla	3	−2	4
20	Kalaâ Sport	3	−2	3
21	Béni-Khalled	3	−1	2
22	Stade Gabesien	3	−1	2
23	AS Agareb	3	−3	2
24	AS Gabes	3	−2	1
25	Kerkennah	3	−2	1
26	Moknine	3	−4	1
27	EGS Gafsa	3	−5	0
28	CO Medenine	3	−5	0