Ksour Essef v Ariana prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 17:01

Ksour Essef 0–0 Ariana KSOUR ESSEF WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ksour Essef win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.896

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ksour Essef win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ksour Essef was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–26–20
1′KICK-OFF Ksour Essef v Ariana
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Ksour Essef win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
42′We said Ksour Essef at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–38–18
45′SECOND HALF Ksour Essef 0–0 Ariana
47′HALF-TIME Ksour Essef 0–0 Ariana
51′We said Ksour Essef at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–44–17
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Ksour Essef win 41%)
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 37–46–17
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Ksour Essef win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
59′We said Ksour Essef at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–16
66′We said Ksour Essef at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–57–14
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Ksour Essef win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
72′We said Ksour Essef at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–64–12
77′We said Ksour Essef at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–72–9
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Ksour Essef win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
81′We said Ksour Essef at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–79–7
85′We said Ksour Essef at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Ksour Essef win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
91′We said Ksour Essef at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–2
FTFULL TIME Ksour Essef 0–0 Ariana
FTKsour Essef 0–0 Ariana · Ksour Essef win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ksour Essef are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ksour Essef 55%, draw 25%, Ariana 20%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Ksour Essef v ArianaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Ksour Essef win55%

Draw25%

Ariana win20%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ksour Essef

Ariana

8Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Ksour Essef	3	+2	7
17	Ariana	3	+1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ksour essef winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Ksour Essef a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ksour Essef v Ariana~~1.65 – 0.87

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept~~W2 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~5 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ksour Essef win	55%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Ariana win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Ksour Essef or draw	80%	–	–
Ksour Essef clean sheet	42%	–	–
Ariana clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 8.9 6.7 3.1 1 12.9 11.8 4.9 2 10.8 9.2 4.0 3 6.0 5.1 2.2 4 2.5 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ksour Essef down, Ariana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Ligue 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ksour Essef at home: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ariana away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Ksour Essef, 0.87 for Ariana. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ARI 1–0 KSO · KSO 2–0 ARI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept

KSOUR ESSEF

DWW0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

ARIANA

DLW1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mégrine	4	+4	10
2	AS Kasserine	3	+5	9
3	EM Mahdia	4	+2	8
4	M'saken	4	+2	8
5	Ksour Essef	3	+2	7
6	CS Chebba	4	+1	7
7	US Tataouine	4	−1	7
8	Redeyef	3	+5	6
9	Korba	3	+3	6
10	Sfax Railways	4	+1	6
11	JS Kairouanaise	3	+1	6
12	Jendouba Sport	3	+1	6
13	Bouchamma	3	−1	6
14	AS Soliman	4	+2	5
15	Sporting Ben Arous	4	+2	5
16	BS Bouhajla	4	−2	5
17	Ariana	3	+1	4
18	Stade Soussien	4	0	4
19	Olympique du Kef	3	0	4
20	Kalaâ Sport	3	−2	3
21	AS Agareb	4	−3	3
22	Stade Gabesien	3	−1	2
23	Béni-Khalled	4	−2	2
24	AS Gabes	4	−3	1
25	Kerkennah	4	−3	1
26	Moknine	3	−4	1
27	EGS Gafsa	3	−5	0
28	CO Medenine	3	−5	0