Korba v Olympique du Kef prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 17:01

Korba 2–1 Olympique du Kef KORBA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Korba win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.423

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Korba win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Korba 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–32–21
1′KICK-OFF Korba v Olympique du Kef
18′A goal for Korba on 18′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–5
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Korba 1–0 Olympique du Kef
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Korba win: 47% at kick-off, 79% now
19′We said Korba at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
30′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–4
41′F. Sfaxi scores for Korba on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–15–3
45′HALF-TIME Korba 1–0 Olympique du Kef
45′SECOND HALF Korba 1–0 Olympique du Kef
57′We said Korba at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Korba win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
72′We said Korba at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
80′We said Korba at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Korba 2–0 Olympique du Kef
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Korba win: 47% at kick-off, over 99% now
81′Korba score on 81′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
86′We said Korba at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–1 · 96–3–0
86′Olympique du Kef find the net on 86′. 2–1. 2–1 · 96–3–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Korba 2–1 Olympique du Kef
87′3 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 97–3–0
90′2–1 at the end. Our 47% on Korba comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
91′Olympique du Kef pull one back on 85′ through A. Rahali. 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
FTFULL TIME Korba 2–1 Olympique du Kef
FTKorba 2–1 Olympique du Kef · Korba win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Korba are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Korba 47%, draw 32%, Olympique du Kef 21%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Korba v Olympique du KefBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Korba win47%

Draw32%

Olympique du Kef win21%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Korba

Olympique du Kef

9Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Korba	3	+3	6
19	Olympique du Kef	3	0	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · korba winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Korba a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Korba v Olympique du Kef~~1.20 – 0.70

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept~~W2 D0 L1 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 4~~9 v 19

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Korba win	47%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Olympique du Kef win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	57%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Korba or draw	79%	–	–
Korba clean sheet	50%	–	–
Olympique du Kef clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.4%

0123450 15.9 10.0 3.7 1 17.4 12.8 4.3 2 10.6 7.3 2.6 3 4.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Korba down, Olympique du Kef across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Ligue 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Korba at home: 1.67 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Olympique du Kef away: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Korba, 0.70 for Olympique du Kef. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept

KORBA

LWW0–1 · 3–0 · 1–0

OLYMPIQUE DU KEF

DLW0–0 · 0–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mégrine	4	+4	10
2	AS Kasserine	3	+5	9
3	EM Mahdia	4	+2	8
4	M'saken	4	+2	8
5	Ksour Essef	3	+2	7
6	CS Chebba	4	+1	7
7	US Tataouine	4	−1	7
8	Redeyef	3	+5	6
9	Korba	3	+3	6
10	Sfax Railways	4	+1	6
11	JS Kairouanaise	3	+1	6
12	Jendouba Sport	3	+1	6
13	Bouchamma	3	−1	6
14	AS Soliman	4	+2	5
15	Sporting Ben Arous	4	+2	5
16	BS Bouhajla	4	−2	5
17	Ariana	3	+1	4
18	Stade Soussien	4	0	4
19	Olympique du Kef	3	0	4
20	Kalaâ Sport	3	−2	3
21	AS Agareb	4	−3	3
22	Stade Gabesien	3	−1	2
23	Béni-Khalled	4	−2	2
24	AS Gabes	4	−3	1
25	Kerkennah	4	−3	1
26	Moknine	3	−4	1
27	EGS Gafsa	3	−5	0
28	CO Medenine	3	−5	0