Kerkennah v AS Agareb prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Kerkennah 0–0 AS Agareb KERKENNAH WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kerkennah win~~59%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.938

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.754

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kerkennah win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kerkennah was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–24–16
3′Much as we predicted: Kerkennah was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–24–16
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Kerkennah win: 59% at kick-off, 48% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Kerkennah win: 59% at kick-off, 50% now
45′We said Kerkennah at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 45–40–15
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Kerkennah win: 59% at kick-off, 50% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Kerkennah win: 59% at kick-off, 48% now
45′HALF-TIME Kerkennah 0–0 AS Agareb
46′SECOND HALF Kerkennah 0–0 AS Agareb
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Kerkennah win: 59% at kick-off, 45% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Kerkennah win: 59% at kick-off, 45% now
FTFULL TIME Kerkennah 0–0 AS Agareb
FTKerkennah 0–0 AS Agareb · Kerkennah win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 07:15

Kerkennah win59%

Draw25%

AS Agareb win16%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Kerkennah

AS Agareb

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
24	AS Agareb	2	−3	1
26	Kerkennah	2	−2	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kerkennah winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

59% The market45%

Us59%

~~Market~~45%

We make Kerkennah a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kerkennah win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kerkennah win	59%	45%	+14
Draw	25%	30%	−5
AS Agareb win	16%	25%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	43%	38%	+5
Both teams to score	42%	44%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	69%	62%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	22%	19%	+3
Kerkennah or draw	84%	75%	+9
Kerkennah clean sheet	49%	–	–
AS Agareb clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.7%

0123450 10.0 6.2 2.5 1 14.7 11.3 3.9 2 12.4 8.8 3.2 3 7.0 5.0 4 3.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kerkennah down, AS Agareb across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,483 Ligue 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kerkennah at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). AS Agareb away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Kerkennah, 0.73 for AS Agareb. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ASA 1–0 KER · KER 3–1 ASA · ASA 0–3 KER · KER 3–1 ASA

Form · last six in Ligue 2

KERKENNAH

WWDWLL4–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

AS AGAREB

WDWLDL1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	EM Mahdia	3	+2	7
2	Mégrine	3	+2	7
3	Redeyef	3	+5	6
4	Korba	3	+3	6
5	AS Kasserine	2	+2	6
6	JS Kairouanaise	2	+2	6
7	M'saken	3	+1	5
8	Sfax Railways	3	+1	5
9	AS Soliman	3	+2	4
10	Stade Soussien	3	+2	4
11	Ksour Essef	2	+1	4
12	CS Chebba	3	0	4
13	BS Bouhajla	3	−2	4
14	Sporting Ben Arous	2	+2	3
15	Kalaâ Sport	2	0	3
16	Jendouba Sport	2	0	3
17	US Tataouine	2	−2	3
18	Bouchamma	2	−2	3
19	Stade Gabesien	2	0	2
20	Béni-Khalled	3	−1	2
21	Ariana	2	−1	1
22	Olympique du Kef	2	−1	1
23	AS Gabes	3	−2	1
24	AS Agareb	2	−3	1
25	Moknine	2	−3	1
26	Kerkennah	2	−2	0
27	CO Medenine	2	−2	0
28	EGS Gafsa	2	−4	0