Kalaâ Sport v Moknine prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 17:01

Kalaâ Sport 3–0 Moknine KALAÂ SPORT WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kalaâ Sport win~~46%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.434

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.355

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kalaâ Sport win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kalaâ Sport 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
1′KICK-OFF Kalaâ Sport v Moknine
13′We said Kalaâ Sport at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–9
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Kalaâ Sport 1–0 Moknine
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Kalaâ Sport win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
14′Kalaâ Sport score on 13′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–9
17′14′: N. Boukadida on the scoresheet for Kalaâ Sport, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–8
19′We said Kalaâ Sport at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
32′We said Kalaâ Sport at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Kalaâ Sport win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Kalaâ Sport 2–0 Moknine
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Kalaâ Sport win: 46% at kick-off, 93% now
33′Kalaâ Sport find the net on 33′. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
37′Kalaâ Sport ahead on 32′ through N. Boukadida. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
43′We said Kalaâ Sport at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′A goal for Kalaâ Sport on 45′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′HALF-TIME Kalaâ Sport 3–0 Moknine
45′SECOND HALF Kalaâ Sport 3–0 Moknine
46′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Kalaâ Sport 3–0 Moknine
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Kalaâ Sport win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
55′We said Kalaâ Sport at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′3–0 at the end. Our 46% on Kalaâ Sport comes in. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Kalaâ Sport 3–0 Moknine
FTKalaâ Sport 3–0 Moknine · Kalaâ Sport win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kalaâ Sport are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kalaâ Sport 46%, draw 28%, Moknine 26%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Kalaâ Sport v MoknineBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Kalaâ Sport win46%

Draw28%

Moknine win26%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kalaâ Sport

Moknine

8Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
20	Kalaâ Sport	3	−2	3
26	Moknine	3	−4	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kalaâ sport winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

46% The market52%

Us46%

~~Market~~52%

We make Kalaâ Sport a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kalaâ Sport v Moknine~~1.44 – 1.01

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept~~W1 D0 L2 · W0 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 1~~20 v 26

~~The market · Kalaâ Sport win~~52% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kalaâ Sport win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kalaâ Sport win	46%	52%	−6
Draw	28%	28%	0
Moknine win	26%	20%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	44%	42%	+2
Both teams to score	48%	46%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	70%	66%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	22%	+1
Kalaâ Sport or draw	74%	80%	−6
Kalaâ Sport clean sheet	37%	–	–
Moknine clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.6 8.4 4.5 1 12.0 12.7 6.2 2.1 2 8.8 8.7 4.4 3 4.3 4.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kalaâ Sport down, Moknine across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Ligue 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kalaâ Sport at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Moknine away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Kalaâ Sport, 1.01 for Moknine. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MOK 2–0 KAL · KAL 2–1 MOK · MOK 2–2 KAL · KAL 1–2 MOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept

KALAÂ SPORT

WLL2–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

MOKNINE

LDL0–3 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mégrine	4	+4	10
2	AS Kasserine	3	+5	9
3	EM Mahdia	4	+2	8
4	M'saken	4	+2	8
5	Ksour Essef	3	+2	7
6	CS Chebba	4	+1	7
7	US Tataouine	4	−1	7
8	Redeyef	3	+5	6
9	Korba	3	+3	6
10	Sfax Railways	4	+1	6
11	JS Kairouanaise	3	+1	6
12	Jendouba Sport	3	+1	6
13	Bouchamma	3	−1	6
14	AS Soliman	4	+2	5
15	Sporting Ben Arous	4	+2	5
16	BS Bouhajla	4	−2	5
17	Ariana	3	+1	4
18	Stade Soussien	4	0	4
19	Olympique du Kef	3	0	4
20	Kalaâ Sport	3	−2	3
21	AS Agareb	4	−3	3
22	Stade Gabesien	3	−1	2
23	Béni-Khalled	4	−2	2
24	AS Gabes	4	−3	1
25	Kerkennah	4	−3	1
26	Moknine	3	−4	1
27	EGS Gafsa	3	−5	0
28	CO Medenine	3	−5	0