JS Kairouanaise v EGS Gafsa prediction · Ligue 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

JS KairouanaiseDrawEGS Gafsa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · JS Kairouanaise 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

JS Kairouanaise are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: JS Kairouanaise 55%, draw 28%, EGS Gafsa 17%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on JS Kairouanaise v EGS GafsaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

JS Kairouanaise win55%

Draw28%

EGS Gafsa win17%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

JS Kairouanaise

EGS Gafsa

8Days since last match8

Last match: 19 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	JS Kairouanaise	4	0	6
22	EGS Gafsa	4	−2	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · js kairouanaise winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make JS Kairouanaise a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · JS Kairouanaise v EGS Gafsa~~1.47 – 0.69

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept~~W2 D0 L2 · W1 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~14 v 22

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
JS Kairouanaise win	55%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
EGS Gafsa win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
JS Kairouanaise or draw	83%	–	–
JS Kairouanaise clean sheet	51%	–	–
EGS Gafsa clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.3%

0123450 12.6 7.6 2.9 1 16.3 11.9 4.0 2 12.1 8.2 2.9 3 6.0 4.1 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+JS Kairouanaise down, EGS Gafsa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,505 Ligue 2 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 8.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

JS Kairouanaise at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). EGS Gafsa away: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for JS Kairouanaise, 0.69 for EGS Gafsa. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~8.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~EGS 4–4 JSK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept

JS KAIROUANAISE

WWLL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

EGS GAFSA

LLLW1–2 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AS Kasserine	4	+6	12
2	Mégrine	4	+4	10
3	Korba	4	+4	9
4	EM Mahdia	4	+2	8
5	M'saken	4	+2	8
6	Ksour Essef	4	+2	8
7	CS Chebba	4	+1	7
8	Jendouba Sport	4	+1	7
9	US Tataouine	4	−1	7
10	Bouchamma	4	−1	7
11	Redeyef	4	+4	6
12	Kalaâ Sport	4	+1	6
13	Sfax Railways	4	+1	6
14	JS Kairouanaise	4	0	6
15	AS Soliman	4	+2	5
16	Sporting Ben Arous	4	+2	5
17	Ariana	4	+1	5
18	Stade Gabesien	4	0	5
19	BS Bouhajla	4	−2	5
20	Stade Soussien	4	0	4
21	Olympique du Kef	4	−1	4
22	EGS Gafsa	4	−2	3
23	AS Agareb	4	−3	3
24	Béni-Khalled	4	−2	2
25	AS Gabes	4	−3	1
26	Kerkennah	4	−3	1
27	Moknine	4	−7	1
28	CO Medenine	4	−8	0