Jendouba Sport v Bouchamma prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 17:01

Jendouba Sport 1–1 Bouchamma JENDOUBA SPORT WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jendouba Sport win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.887

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jendouba Sport win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Jendouba Sport was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–26–18
1′KICK-OFF Jendouba Sport v Bouchamma
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Jendouba Sport win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
40′We said Jendouba Sport at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–39–17
45′HALF-TIME Jendouba Sport 0–0 Bouchamma
46′SECOND HALF Jendouba Sport 0–0 Bouchamma
50′We said Jendouba Sport at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–45–16
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Jendouba Sport win 42%)
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Jendouba Sport win: 56% at kick-off, 36% now
59′We said Jendouba Sport at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–52–14
60′A goal for Jendouba Sport on 59′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–2
60′We published Jendouba Sport at 56%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–2
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Jendouba Sport 1–0 Bouchamma
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Jendouba Sport win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Jendouba Sport win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 52%)
64′A. Naghmouchi scores for Jendouba Sport on 66′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 87–12–1
73′We published Jendouba Sport at 56%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
83′We published Jendouba Sport at 56%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Jendouba Sport win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
89′Bouchamma score on 89′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 6–91–3
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Jendouba Sport 1–1 Bouchamma
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Jendouba Sport win: 56% at kick-off, 6% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Jendouba Sport win 97%)
90′We said Jendouba Sport at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 1–1 · 5–93–2
90′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–1 · 5–93–2
91′We said Jendouba Sport at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
FTFULL TIME Jendouba Sport 1–1 Bouchamma
FTJendouba Sport 1–1 Bouchamma · Jendouba Sport win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jendouba Sport are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jendouba Sport 56%, draw 26%, Bouchamma 18%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Jendouba Sport v BouchammaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Jendouba Sport win56%

Draw26%

Bouchamma win18%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jendouba Sport

Bouchamma

8Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Jendouba Sport	3	+1	6
13	Bouchamma	3	−1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jendouba sport winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Jendouba Sport a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jendouba Sport v Bouchamma~~1.58 – 0.76

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept~~W2 D0 L1 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 6~~12 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jendouba Sport win	56%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Bouchamma win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Jendouba Sport or draw	82%	–	–
Jendouba Sport clean sheet	47%	–	–
Bouchamma clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.7%

0123450 10.6 7.0 2.9 1 14.7 11.8 4.4 2 11.8 8.8 3.4 3 6.2 4.6 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jendouba Sport down, Bouchamma across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Ligue 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jendouba Sport at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bouchamma away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Jendouba Sport, 0.76 for Bouchamma. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~JEN 2–1 BOU · BOU 1–1 JEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept

JENDOUBA SPORT

LWW0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

BOUCHAMMA

WLW1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mégrine	4	+4	10
2	AS Kasserine	3	+5	9
3	EM Mahdia	4	+2	8
4	M'saken	4	+2	8
5	Ksour Essef	3	+2	7
6	CS Chebba	4	+1	7
7	US Tataouine	4	−1	7
8	Redeyef	3	+5	6
9	Korba	3	+3	6
10	Sfax Railways	4	+1	6
11	JS Kairouanaise	3	+1	6
12	Jendouba Sport	3	+1	6
13	Bouchamma	3	−1	6
14	AS Soliman	4	+2	5
15	Sporting Ben Arous	4	+2	5
16	BS Bouhajla	4	−2	5
17	Ariana	3	+1	4
18	Stade Soussien	4	0	4
19	Olympique du Kef	3	0	4
20	Kalaâ Sport	3	−2	3
21	AS Agareb	4	−3	3
22	Stade Gabesien	3	−1	2
23	Béni-Khalled	4	−2	2
24	AS Gabes	4	−3	1
25	Kerkennah	4	−3	1
26	Moknine	3	−4	1
27	EGS Gafsa	3	−5	0
28	CO Medenine	3	−5	0