EM Mahdia v US Tataouine prediction · Ligue 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

EM MahdiaDrawUS Tataouine

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · EM Mahdia 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with EM Mahdia just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: EM Mahdia 36%, draw 31%, US Tataouine 32%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on EM Mahdia v US TataouineBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

EM Mahdia win36%

Draw31%

US Tataouine win32%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

EM Mahdia

US Tataouine

8Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	EM Mahdia	4	+2	8
9	US Tataouine	4	−1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · em mahdia winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make EM Mahdia a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · EM Mahdia v US Tataouine~~1.08 – 1.00

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W2 D2 L0 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 7~~4 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
EM Mahdia win	36%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
US Tataouine win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
EM Mahdia or draw	68%	–	–
EM Mahdia clean sheet	37%	–	–
US Tataouine clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 13.5 11.9 6.3 2.2 1 12.9 13.7 6.5 2.2 2 7.3 7.1 3.5 3 2.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+EM Mahdia down, US Tataouine across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,505 Ligue 2 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

EM Mahdia at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). US Tataouine away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for EM Mahdia, 1.00 for US Tataouine. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~EMM 0–1 UST · UST 0–0 EMM · UST 3–1 EMM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept

EM MAHDIA

WWDD2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

US TATAOUINE

LWDW1–4 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AS Kasserine	4	+6	12
2	Mégrine	4	+4	10
3	Korba	4	+4	9
4	EM Mahdia	4	+2	8
5	M'saken	4	+2	8
6	Ksour Essef	4	+2	8
7	CS Chebba	4	+1	7
8	Jendouba Sport	4	+1	7
9	US Tataouine	4	−1	7
10	Bouchamma	4	−1	7
11	Redeyef	4	+4	6
12	Kalaâ Sport	4	+1	6
13	Sfax Railways	4	+1	6
14	JS Kairouanaise	4	0	6
15	AS Soliman	4	+2	5
16	Sporting Ben Arous	4	+2	5
17	Ariana	4	+1	5
18	Stade Gabesien	4	0	5
19	BS Bouhajla	4	−2	5
20	Stade Soussien	4	0	4
21	Olympique du Kef	4	−1	4
22	EGS Gafsa	4	−2	3
23	AS Agareb	4	−3	3
24	Béni-Khalled	4	−2	2
25	AS Gabes	4	−3	1
26	Kerkennah	4	−3	1
27	Moknine	4	−7	1
28	CO Medenine	4	−8	0