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EM Mahdia v M'saken

EM Mahdia

2–2Full time

M'saken

Ligue 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

EM Mahdia 2–2 M'saken EM MAHDIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said EM Mahdia win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.689

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said EM Mahdia win at 44%.
1′A goal for M'saken on 1′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–26–56
1′KICK-OFF EM Mahdia v M'saken
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' EM Mahdia 0–1 M'saken
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 1' EM Mahdia win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
1′THE CALL SWINGS · 1' M'saken win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was EM Mahdia win 18%)
10′⚽ GOAL · 2' EM Mahdia 0–1 M'saken · A. Attia
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' EM Mahdia 0–2 M'saken
18′13′ and it is 0–2: M'saken have scored. 0–2 · 4–11–86
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' EM Mahdia win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
38′We said EM Mahdia at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' EM Mahdia 1–2 M'saken
45′HALF-TIME EM Mahdia 1–2 M'saken
47′SECOND HALF EM Mahdia 1–2 M'saken
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' EM Mahdia 2–2 M'saken
FTFULL TIME EM Mahdia 2–2 M'saken
FTEM Mahdia 2–2 M'saken · EM Mahdia win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

EM Mahdia win44%

Draw33%

M'saken win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · em mahdia winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

44% The market–

Us44%

We make EM Mahdia a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
EM Mahdia win	44%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
M'saken win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	27%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	54%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
EM Mahdia or draw	77%	–	–
EM Mahdia clean sheet	50%	–	–
M'saken clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.7%

0123450 17.7 11.1 4.2 1 17.4 13.0 4.4 2 9.8 6.7 2.4 3 3.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+EM Mahdia down, M'saken across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,477 Ligue 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 1.62 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

EM Mahdia at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). M'saken away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for EM Mahdia, 0.70 for M'saken. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.62

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MSA 2–0 EMM · EMM 1–2 MSA · EMM 0–0 MSA · MSA 2–0 EMM

Form · last six in Ligue 2

EM MAHDIA

DLLLWW0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–1

M'SAKEN

DLLLWD0–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Redeyef	2	+6	6
2	EM Mahdia	2	+2	6
3	AS Kasserine	2	+2	6
4	JS Kairouanaise	2	+2	6
5	AS Soliman	2	+3	4
6	Mégrine	2	+1	4
7	BS Bouhajla	2	+1	4
8	M'saken	2	+1	4
9	Sfax Railways	2	+1	4
10	Ksour Essef	2	+1	4
11	Sporting Ben Arous	2	+2	3
12	Korba	2	+2	3
13	Kalaâ Sport	2	0	3
14	Jendouba Sport	2	0	3
15	US Tataouine	2	−2	3
16	Bouchamma	2	−2	3
17	Stade Gabesien	2	0	2
18	Béni-Khalled	2	−1	1
19	Stade Soussien	2	−1	1
20	AS Gabes	2	−1	1
21	Ariana	2	−1	1
22	CS Chebba	2	−1	1
23	Olympique du Kef	2	−1	1
24	AS Agareb	2	−3	1
25	Moknine	2	−3	1
26	Kerkennah	2	−2	0
27	CO Medenine	2	−2	0
28	EGS Gafsa	2	−4	0