EGS Gafsa v CO Medenine prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 17:01

EGS Gafsa 3–0 CO Medenine EGS GAFSA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said EGS Gafsa win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.259

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said EGS Gafsa win at 59%.
1′Little has changed for our model: EGS Gafsa 59% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–25–17
1′KICK-OFF EGS Gafsa v CO Medenine
34′EGS Gafsa find the net on 34′. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–4
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' EGS Gafsa win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' EGS Gafsa 1–0 CO Medenine
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' EGS Gafsa win: 59% at kick-off, 83% now
35′We said EGS Gafsa at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–13–4
36′EGS Gafsa ahead on 40′ through Y. Salhi. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–13–3
36′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 84–13–3
45′HALF-TIME EGS Gafsa 1–0 CO Medenine
58′EGS Gafsa ahead on 40′ through Y. Salhi. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–2
59′We said EGS Gafsa at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–2
69′A goal for EGS Gafsa on 69′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' EGS Gafsa 2–0 CO Medenine
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' EGS Gafsa win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
70′We said EGS Gafsa at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
70′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
72′S. Mejri scores for EGS Gafsa on 72′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
77′We said EGS Gafsa at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′EGS Gafsa score on 81′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' EGS Gafsa 3–0 CO Medenine
82′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
84′82′: S. Kanzari on the scoresheet for EGS Gafsa, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME EGS Gafsa 3–0 CO Medenine
FTEGS Gafsa 3–0 CO Medenine · EGS Gafsa win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

EGS Gafsa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: EGS Gafsa 59%, draw 25%, CO Medenine 17%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on EGS Gafsa v CO MedenineBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

EGS Gafsa win59%

Draw25%

CO Medenine win17%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

EGS Gafsa

CO Medenine

8Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
27	EGS Gafsa	3	−5	0
28	CO Medenine	3	−5	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · egs gafsa winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make EGS Gafsa a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · EGS Gafsa v CO Medenine~~1.72 – 0.77

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept~~W0 D0 L3 · W0 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~27 v 28

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
EGS Gafsa win	59%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
CO Medenine win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
EGS Gafsa or draw	83%	–	–
EGS Gafsa clean sheet	47%	–	–
CO Medenine clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 9.5 6.3 2.6 1 13.9 11.1 4.2 2 11.8 8.8 3.4 3 6.8 5.0 4 3.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+EGS Gafsa down, CO Medenine across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Ligue 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

EGS Gafsa at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). CO Medenine away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for EGS Gafsa, 0.77 for CO Medenine. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept

EGS GAFSA

LLL1–2 · 0–3 · 2–3

CO MEDENINE

LLL1–2 · 0–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mégrine	4	+4	10
2	AS Kasserine	3	+5	9
3	EM Mahdia	4	+2	8
4	M'saken	4	+2	8
5	Ksour Essef	3	+2	7
6	CS Chebba	4	+1	7
7	US Tataouine	4	−1	7
8	Redeyef	3	+5	6
9	Korba	3	+3	6
10	Sfax Railways	4	+1	6
11	JS Kairouanaise	3	+1	6
12	Jendouba Sport	3	+1	6
13	Bouchamma	3	−1	6
14	AS Soliman	4	+2	5
15	Sporting Ben Arous	4	+2	5
16	BS Bouhajla	4	−2	5
17	Ariana	3	+1	4
18	Stade Soussien	4	0	4
19	Olympique du Kef	3	0	4
20	Kalaâ Sport	3	−2	3
21	AS Agareb	4	−3	3
22	Stade Gabesien	3	−1	2
23	Béni-Khalled	4	−2	2
24	AS Gabes	4	−3	1
25	Kerkennah	4	−3	1
26	Moknine	3	−4	1
27	EGS Gafsa	3	−5	0
28	CO Medenine	3	−5	0