CS Chebba v Béni-Khalled prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

CS Chebba 1–0 Béni-Khalled CS CHEBBA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said CS Chebba win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.406

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CS Chebba win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: CS Chebba was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–24
1′KICK-OFF CS Chebba v Béni-Khalled
33′A goal for CS Chebba on 33′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–6
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' CS Chebba 1–0 Béni-Khalled
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' CS Chebba win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
34′We published CS Chebba at 48%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–6
34′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–6
36′H. Mekhinini scores for CS Chebba on 40′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
45′HALF-TIME CS Chebba 1–0 Béni-Khalled
46′SECOND HALF CS Chebba 1–0 Béni-Khalled
48′We published CS Chebba at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
67′We published CS Chebba at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' CS Chebba win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
77′We published CS Chebba at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
84′We published CS Chebba at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' CS Chebba win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME CS Chebba 1–0 Béni-Khalled
FTCS Chebba 1–0 Béni-Khalled · CS Chebba win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CS Chebba are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CS Chebba 48%, draw 28%, Béni-Khalled 24%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on CS Chebba v Béni-KhalledBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

CS Chebba win48%

Draw28%

Béni-Khalled win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CS Chebba

Béni-Khalled

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	CS Chebba	3	0	4
21	Béni-Khalled	3	−1	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cs chebba winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make CS Chebba a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CS Chebba v Béni-Khalled~~1.42 – 0.92

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D1 L1 · W0 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 2~~16 v 21

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CS Chebba win	48%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Béni-Khalled win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
CS Chebba or draw	76%	–	–
CS Chebba clean sheet	40%	–	–
Béni-Khalled clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%

0123450 10.5 8.4 4.1 1 13.2 12.8 5.7 2 9.6 8.6 4.0 3 4.6 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CS Chebba down, Béni-Khalled across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Ligue 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

CS Chebba at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Béni-Khalled away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for CS Chebba, 0.92 for Béni-Khalled. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept

CS CHEBBA

LDW1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1

BÉNI-KHALLED

LDD1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AS Kasserine	3	+5	9
2	EM Mahdia	3	+2	7
3	Mégrine	3	+2	7
4	Ksour Essef	3	+2	7
5	Redeyef	3	+5	6
6	Korba	3	+3	6
7	JS Kairouanaise	3	+1	6
8	Jendouba Sport	3	+1	6
9	Bouchamma	3	−1	6
10	M'saken	3	+1	5
11	Sfax Railways	3	+1	5
12	AS Soliman	3	+2	4
13	Sporting Ben Arous	3	+2	4
14	Stade Soussien	3	+2	4
15	Ariana	3	+1	4
16	CS Chebba	3	0	4
17	Olympique du Kef	3	0	4
18	US Tataouine	3	−2	4
19	BS Bouhajla	3	−2	4
20	Kalaâ Sport	3	−2	3
21	Béni-Khalled	3	−1	2
22	Stade Gabesien	3	−1	2
23	AS Agareb	3	−3	2
24	AS Gabes	3	−2	1
25	Kerkennah	3	−2	1
26	Moknine	3	−4	1
27	EGS Gafsa	3	−5	0
28	CO Medenine	3	−5	0