BS Bouhajla v Sporting Ben Arous prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

BS Bouhajla 0–0 Sporting Ben Arous BS BOUHAJLA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said BS Bouhajla win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.694

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said BS Bouhajla win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: BS Bouhajla 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–33–26
1′KICK-OFF BS Bouhajla v Sporting Ben Arous
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was BS Bouhajla win 36%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' BS Bouhajla win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
45′HALF-TIME BS Bouhajla 0–0 Sporting Ben Arous
46′SECOND HALF BS Bouhajla 0–0 Sporting Ben Arous
47′We said BS Bouhajla at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–50–20
49′We said BS Bouhajla at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
60′We said BS Bouhajla at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' BS Bouhajla win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
69′We said BS Bouhajla at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
76′We said BS Bouhajla at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' BS Bouhajla win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
82′We said BS Bouhajla at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
89′We said BS Bouhajla at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' BS Bouhajla win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME BS Bouhajla 0–0 Sporting Ben Arous
FTBS Bouhajla 0–0 Sporting Ben Arous · BS Bouhajla win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

BS Bouhajla are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: BS Bouhajla 42%, draw 33%, Sporting Ben Arous 26%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on BS Bouhajla v Sporting Ben ArousBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

BS Bouhajla win42%

Draw33%

Sporting Ben Arous win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BS Bouhajla

Sporting Ben Arous

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Sporting Ben Arous	3	+2	4
19	BS Bouhajla	3	−2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bs bouhajla winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make BS Bouhajla a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BS Bouhajla v Sporting Ben Arous~~1.09 – 0.78

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 4~~19 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BS Bouhajla win	42%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Sporting Ben Arous win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	29%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
BS Bouhajla or draw	74%	–	–
BS Bouhajla clean sheet	46%	–	–
Sporting Ben Arous clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.4%

0123450 16.4 11.5 4.8 1 16.1 13.3 5.0 2 9.0 6.9 2.7 3 3.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BS Bouhajla down, Sporting Ben Arous across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Ligue 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BS Bouhajla at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting Ben Arous away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for BS Bouhajla, 0.78 for Sporting Ben Arous. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SPO 1–0 BSB · BSB 0–0 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept

BS BOUHAJLA

WDL2–1 · 0–0 · 0–3

SPORTING BEN AROUS

LWD1–2 · 3–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AS Kasserine	3	+5	9
2	EM Mahdia	3	+2	7
3	Mégrine	3	+2	7
4	Ksour Essef	3	+2	7
5	Redeyef	3	+5	6
6	Korba	3	+3	6
7	JS Kairouanaise	3	+1	6
8	Jendouba Sport	3	+1	6
9	Bouchamma	3	−1	6
10	M'saken	3	+1	5
11	Sfax Railways	3	+1	5
12	AS Soliman	3	+2	4
13	Sporting Ben Arous	3	+2	4
14	Stade Soussien	3	+2	4
15	Ariana	3	+1	4
16	CS Chebba	3	0	4
17	Olympique du Kef	3	0	4
18	US Tataouine	3	−2	4
19	BS Bouhajla	3	−2	4
20	Kalaâ Sport	3	−2	3
21	Béni-Khalled	3	−1	2
22	Stade Gabesien	3	−1	2
23	AS Agareb	3	−3	2
24	AS Gabes	3	−2	1
25	Kerkennah	3	−2	1
26	Moknine	3	−4	1
27	EGS Gafsa	3	−5	0
28	CO Medenine	3	−5	0