Bouchamma v Stade Gabesien prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Bouchamma 2–1 Stade Gabesien BOUCHAMMA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bouchamma win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.476

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bouchamma win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Bouchamma v Stade Gabesien
2′Little has changed for our model: Bouchamma 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–30–26
3′Little has changed for our model: Bouchamma 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–30–26
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Bouchamma 1–0 Stade Gabesien
21′17′ and it is 1–0: Bouchamma have scored. 1–0 · 75–18–7
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Bouchamma win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Bouchamma win: 44% at kick-off, 44% now
22′17′ and it is 1–0: Bouchamma have scored. 1–0 · 75–18–7
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Bouchamma win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Bouchamma win: 44% at kick-off, 44% now
34′⚽ GOAL · 17' Bouchamma 1–0 Stade Gabesien · M. Khairi
36′We said Bouchamma at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
37′We said Bouchamma at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
45′HALF-TIME Bouchamma 1–0 Stade Gabesien
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Bouchamma win: 44% at kick-off, 77% now
46′SECOND HALF Bouchamma 1–0 Stade Gabesien
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Bouchamma 1–1 Stade Gabesien
57′⚽ GOAL · 17' Bouchamma 1–1 Stade Gabesien · M. Khairi
57′⚽ GOAL · 62' Bouchamma 1–1 Stade Gabesien · Y. Mejri
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Bouchamma 2–1 Stade Gabesien
FTFULL TIME Bouchamma 2–1 Stade Gabesien
FTBouchamma 2–1 Stade Gabesien · Bouchamma win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Bouchamma win44%

Draw31%

Stade Gabesien win26%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bouchamma

Stade Gabesien

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Bouchamma	2	−2	3
19	Stade Gabesien	2	0	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bouchamma winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Bouchamma a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bouchamma win	44%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Stade Gabesien win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Bouchamma or draw	74%	–	–
Bouchamma clean sheet	43%	–	–
Stade Gabesien clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.6%

0123450 13.6 10.2 4.7 1 14.6 13.3 5.5 2 9.2 7.7 3.3 3 3.8 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bouchamma down, Stade Gabesien across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,483 Ligue 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bouchamma at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Stade Gabesien away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Bouchamma, 0.86 for Stade Gabesien. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BOU 1–2 STA · STA 2–1 BOU

Form · last six in Ligue 2

BOUCHAMMA

LWWDWL1–2 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–3

STADE GABESIEN

DDWLDD0–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	EM Mahdia	3	+2	7
2	Mégrine	3	+2	7
3	Redeyef	3	+5	6
4	Korba	3	+3	6
5	AS Kasserine	2	+2	6
6	JS Kairouanaise	2	+2	6
7	M'saken	3	+1	5
8	Sfax Railways	3	+1	5
9	AS Soliman	3	+2	4
10	Stade Soussien	3	+2	4
11	Ksour Essef	2	+1	4
12	CS Chebba	3	0	4
13	BS Bouhajla	3	−2	4
14	Sporting Ben Arous	2	+2	3
15	Kalaâ Sport	2	0	3
16	Jendouba Sport	2	0	3
17	US Tataouine	2	−2	3
18	Bouchamma	2	−2	3
19	Stade Gabesien	2	0	2
20	Béni-Khalled	3	−1	2
21	Ariana	2	−1	1
22	Olympique du Kef	2	−1	1
23	AS Gabes	3	−2	1
24	AS Agareb	2	−3	1
25	Moknine	2	−3	1
26	Kerkennah	2	−2	0
27	CO Medenine	2	−2	0
28	EGS Gafsa	2	−4	0