Bouchamma v Kalaâ Sport prediction · Ligue 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BouchammaDrawKalaâ Sport

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Bouchamma 62%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bouchamma are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bouchamma 62%, draw 22%, Kalaâ Sport 15%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Bouchamma v Kalaâ SportBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

Bouchamma win62%

Draw22%

Kalaâ Sport win15%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bouchamma

Kalaâ Sport

7Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Bouchamma	4	−1	7
12	Kalaâ Sport	4	+1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bouchamma winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Bouchamma a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bouchamma v Kalaâ Sport~~1.96 – 0.85

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 6~~10 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bouchamma win	62%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Kalaâ Sport win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Bouchamma or draw	85%	–	–
Bouchamma clean sheet	43%	–	–
Kalaâ Sport clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.5%

0123450 6.9 4.9 2.3 1 11.5 10.4 4.2 2 11.4 9.4 4.0 3 7.4 6.1 2.6 4 3.7 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bouchamma down, Kalaâ Sport across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,505 Ligue 2 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bouchamma at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Kalaâ Sport away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Bouchamma, 0.85 for Kalaâ Sport. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BOU 1–0 KAL · KAL 1–1 BOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept

BOUCHAMMA

WLWD1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–1

KALAÂ SPORT

WLLW2–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AS Kasserine	4	+6	12
2	Mégrine	4	+4	10
3	Korba	4	+4	9
4	EM Mahdia	4	+2	8
5	M'saken	4	+2	8
6	Ksour Essef	4	+2	8
7	CS Chebba	4	+1	7
8	Jendouba Sport	4	+1	7
9	US Tataouine	4	−1	7
10	Bouchamma	4	−1	7
11	Redeyef	4	+4	6
12	Kalaâ Sport	4	+1	6
13	Sfax Railways	4	+1	6
14	JS Kairouanaise	4	0	6
15	AS Soliman	4	+2	5
16	Sporting Ben Arous	4	+2	5
17	Ariana	4	+1	5
18	Stade Gabesien	4	0	5
19	BS Bouhajla	4	−2	5
20	Stade Soussien	4	0	4
21	Olympique du Kef	4	−1	4
22	EGS Gafsa	4	−2	3
23	AS Agareb	4	−3	3
24	Béni-Khalled	4	−2	2
25	AS Gabes	4	−3	1
26	Kerkennah	4	−3	1
27	Moknine	4	−7	1
28	CO Medenine	4	−8	0