AS Kasserine v JS Kairouanaise prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 17:01

AS Kasserine 1–0 JS Kairouanaise AS KASSERINE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said AS Kasserine win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.385

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AS Kasserine win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: AS Kasserine was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–32–18
1′KICK-OFF AS Kasserine v JS Kairouanaise
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' AS Kasserine win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was AS Kasserine win 42%)
40′We said AS Kasserine at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–46–16
45′HALF-TIME AS Kasserine 0–0 JS Kairouanaise
46′SECOND HALF AS Kasserine 0–0 JS Kairouanaise
49′We said AS Kasserine at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–51–15
53′AS Kasserine find the net on 53′. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–13–2
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' AS Kasserine 1–0 JS Kairouanaise
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' AS Kasserine win: 50% at kick-off, 86% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' AS Kasserine win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 54%)
54′We published AS Kasserine at 50%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–2
54′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 86–12–2
69′We published AS Kasserine at 50%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' AS Kasserine win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
81′We published AS Kasserine at 50%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME AS Kasserine 1–0 JS Kairouanaise
FTAS Kasserine 1–0 JS Kairouanaise · AS Kasserine win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AS Kasserine are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AS Kasserine 50%, draw 32%, JS Kairouanaise 18%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on AS Kasserine v JS KairouanaiseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

AS Kasserine win50%

Draw32%

JS Kairouanaise win18%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AS Kasserine

JS Kairouanaise

8Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	AS Kasserine	3	+5	9
11	JS Kairouanaise	3	+1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · as kasserine winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make AS Kasserine a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AS Kasserine v JS Kairouanaise~~1.21 – 0.61

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept~~W3 D0 L0 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 6~~2 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AS Kasserine win	50%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
JS Kairouanaise win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	32%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	54%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
AS Kasserine or draw	82%	–	–
AS Kasserine clean sheet	55%	–	–
JS Kairouanaise clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.9%

0123450 17.2 9.5 3.1 1 18.9 12.1 3.6 2 11.6 7.0 2.2 3 4.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AS Kasserine down, JS Kairouanaise across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Ligue 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AS Kasserine at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). JS Kairouanaise away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for AS Kasserine, 0.61 for JS Kairouanaise. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ASK 0–0 JSK · JSK 3–0 ASK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept

AS KASSERINE

WWW2–1 · 1–0 · 3–0

JS KAIROUANAISE

WWL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mégrine	4	+4	10
2	AS Kasserine	3	+5	9
3	EM Mahdia	4	+2	8
4	M'saken	4	+2	8
5	Ksour Essef	3	+2	7
6	CS Chebba	4	+1	7
7	US Tataouine	4	−1	7
8	Redeyef	3	+5	6
9	Korba	3	+3	6
10	Sfax Railways	4	+1	6
11	JS Kairouanaise	3	+1	6
12	Jendouba Sport	3	+1	6
13	Bouchamma	3	−1	6
14	AS Soliman	4	+2	5
15	Sporting Ben Arous	4	+2	5
16	BS Bouhajla	4	−2	5
17	Ariana	3	+1	4
18	Stade Soussien	4	0	4
19	Olympique du Kef	3	0	4
20	Kalaâ Sport	3	−2	3
21	AS Agareb	4	−3	3
22	Stade Gabesien	3	−1	2
23	Béni-Khalled	4	−2	2
24	AS Gabes	4	−3	1
25	Kerkennah	4	−3	1
26	Moknine	3	−4	1
27	EGS Gafsa	3	−5	0
28	CO Medenine	3	−5	0