AS Agareb v M'saken prediction · Ligue 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AS AgarebDrawM'saken

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · AS Agareb 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AS Agareb are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AS Agareb 42%, draw 32%, M'saken 25%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on AS Agareb v M'sakenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

AS Agareb win42%

Draw32%

M'saken win25%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AS Agareb

M'saken

8Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	M'saken	4	+2	8
23	AS Agareb	4	−3	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · as agareb winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make AS Agareb a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AS Agareb v M'saken~~1.11 – 0.79

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W0 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 8~~23 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AS Agareb win	42%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
M'saken win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	57%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
AS Agareb or draw	75%	–	–
AS Agareb clean sheet	46%	–	–
M'saken clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.0%

0123450 16.0 11.2 4.7 1 16.0 13.3 5.0 2 9.2 7.1 2.8 3 3.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AS Agareb down, M'saken across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,505 Ligue 2 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AS Agareb at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). M'saken away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for AS Agareb, 0.79 for M'saken. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ASA 1–0 MSA · MSA 0–0 ASA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept

AS AGAREB

DLDD2–2 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1

M'SAKEN

WDDW2–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AS Kasserine	4	+6	12
2	Mégrine	4	+4	10
3	Korba	4	+4	9
4	EM Mahdia	4	+2	8
5	M'saken	4	+2	8
6	Ksour Essef	4	+2	8
7	CS Chebba	4	+1	7
8	Jendouba Sport	4	+1	7
9	US Tataouine	4	−1	7
10	Bouchamma	4	−1	7
11	Redeyef	4	+4	6
12	Kalaâ Sport	4	+1	6
13	Sfax Railways	4	+1	6
14	JS Kairouanaise	4	0	6
15	AS Soliman	4	+2	5
16	Sporting Ben Arous	4	+2	5
17	Ariana	4	+1	5
18	Stade Gabesien	4	0	5
19	BS Bouhajla	4	−2	5
20	Stade Soussien	4	0	4
21	Olympique du Kef	4	−1	4
22	EGS Gafsa	4	−2	3
23	AS Agareb	4	−3	3
24	Béni-Khalled	4	−2	2
25	AS Gabes	4	−3	1
26	Kerkennah	4	−3	1
27	Moknine	4	−7	1
28	CO Medenine	4	−8	0