AS Agareb v EM Mahdia prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

AS Agareb 1–1 EM Mahdia AS AGAREB WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AS Agareb win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.779

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AS Agareb win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: AS Agareb was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–24
1′KICK-OFF AS Agareb v EM Mahdia
13′AS Agareb score on 13′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
13′We published AS Agareb at 47%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' AS Agareb 1–0 EM Mahdia
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' AS Agareb win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
27′15′: N. Laabidi on the scoresheet for AS Agareb, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–6
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–6
44′We published AS Agareb at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
45′HALF-TIME AS Agareb 1–0 EM Mahdia
46′SECOND HALF AS Agareb 1–0 EM Mahdia
64′We published AS Agareb at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' AS Agareb win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
71′EM Mahdia find the net on 71′. 1–1. 1–1 · 21–66–13
71′We said AS Agareb at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–1 · 21–66–13
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' AS Agareb 1–1 EM Mahdia
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' AS Agareb win: 47% at kick-off, 21% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 66% (was AS Agareb win 21%)
73′We said AS Agareb at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–69–12
74′EM Mahdia level it on 74′ through E. Khammassi. 1–1. 1–1 · 18–70–11
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' AS Agareb win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
79′We said AS Agareb at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–78–8
83′We said AS Agareb at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' AS Agareb win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
90′We said AS Agareb at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME AS Agareb 1–1 EM Mahdia
FTAS Agareb 1–1 EM Mahdia · AS Agareb win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AS Agareb are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AS Agareb 47%, draw 29%, EM Mahdia 24%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on AS Agareb v EM MahdiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

AS Agareb win47%

Draw29%

EM Mahdia win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AS Agareb

EM Mahdia

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	EM Mahdia	3	+2	7
23	AS Agareb	3	−3	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · as agareb winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make AS Agareb a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AS Agareb v EM Mahdia~~1.33 – 0.85

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W0 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 2 v 7~~23 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AS Agareb win	47%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
EM Mahdia win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
AS Agareb or draw	76%	–	–
AS Agareb clean sheet	43%	–	–
EM Mahdia clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.4%

0123450 12.3 9.2 4.2 1 14.4 13.0 5.3 2 9.8 8.2 3.5 3 4.4 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AS Agareb down, EM Mahdia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Ligue 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AS Agareb at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). EM Mahdia away: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for AS Agareb, 0.85 for EM Mahdia. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ASA 0–0 EMM · EMM 1–0 ASA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept

AS AGAREB

DLD2–2 · 0–3 · 0–0

EM MAHDIA

WWD2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AS Kasserine	3	+5	9
2	EM Mahdia	3	+2	7
3	Mégrine	3	+2	7
4	Ksour Essef	3	+2	7
5	Redeyef	3	+5	6
6	Korba	3	+3	6
7	JS Kairouanaise	3	+1	6
8	Jendouba Sport	3	+1	6
9	Bouchamma	3	−1	6
10	M'saken	3	+1	5
11	Sfax Railways	3	+1	5
12	AS Soliman	3	+2	4
13	Sporting Ben Arous	3	+2	4
14	Stade Soussien	3	+2	4
15	Ariana	3	+1	4
16	CS Chebba	3	0	4
17	Olympique du Kef	3	0	4
18	US Tataouine	3	−2	4
19	BS Bouhajla	3	−2	4
20	Kalaâ Sport	3	−2	3
21	Béni-Khalled	3	−1	2
22	Stade Gabesien	3	−1	2
23	AS Agareb	3	−3	2
24	AS Gabes	3	−2	1
25	Kerkennah	3	−2	1
26	Moknine	3	−4	1
27	EGS Gafsa	3	−5	0
28	CO Medenine	3	−5	0