Ariana v Kalaâ Sport prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Ariana 2–0 Kalaâ Sport ARIANA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ariana win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.269

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ariana win at 58%.
1′KICK-OFF Ariana v Kalaâ Sport
2′Much as we predicted: Ariana was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–23–18
4′Much as we predicted: Ariana was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–24–18
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Ariana 1–0 Kalaâ Sport
17′A goal for Ariana on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–13–5
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Ariana win: 58% at kick-off, 82% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Ariana win: 58% at kick-off, 58% now
19′A goal for Ariana on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–13–5
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Ariana win: 58% at kick-off, 58% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Ariana win: 58% at kick-off, 82% now
36′We published Ariana at 58%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–4
37′We published Ariana at 58%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–4
39′⚽ GOAL · 5' Ariana 1–0 Kalaâ Sport
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–3
45′HALF-TIME Ariana 1–0 Kalaâ Sport
46′SECOND HALF Ariana 1–0 Kalaâ Sport
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Ariana win: 58% at kick-off, 82% now
69′⚽ GOAL · 5' Ariana 1–0 Kalaâ Sport
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Ariana 1–1 Kalaâ Sport
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Ariana 2–0 Kalaâ Sport
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Ariana 2–1 Kalaâ Sport
FTFULL TIME Ariana 2–0 Kalaâ Sport
FTAriana 2–0 Kalaâ Sport · Ariana win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ariana win58%

Draw24%

Kalaâ Sport win18%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ariana

Kalaâ Sport

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Kalaâ Sport	2	0	3
21	Ariana	2	−1	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ariana winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Ariana a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ariana win	58%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Kalaâ Sport win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Ariana or draw	82%	–	–
Ariana clean sheet	42%	–	–
Kalaâ Sport clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.8%

0123450 7.8 5.8 2.8 1 11.8 11.2 4.8 2 10.7 9.3 4.2 3 6.4 5.6 2.5 4 3.0 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ariana down, Kalaâ Sport across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,483 Ligue 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ariana at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kalaâ Sport away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Ariana, 0.89 for Kalaâ Sport. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ARI 1–0 KAL · KAL 2–1 ARI · ARI 5–2 KAL · KAL 3–2 ARI

Form · last six in Ligue 2

ARIANA

WLDDDL3–0 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

KALAÂ SPORT

LDWLWL0–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	EM Mahdia	3	+2	7
2	Mégrine	3	+2	7
3	Redeyef	3	+5	6
4	Korba	3	+3	6
5	AS Kasserine	2	+2	6
6	JS Kairouanaise	2	+2	6
7	M'saken	3	+1	5
8	Sfax Railways	3	+1	5
9	AS Soliman	3	+2	4
10	Stade Soussien	3	+2	4
11	Ksour Essef	2	+1	4
12	CS Chebba	3	0	4
13	BS Bouhajla	3	−2	4
14	Sporting Ben Arous	2	+2	3
15	Kalaâ Sport	2	0	3
16	Jendouba Sport	2	0	3
17	US Tataouine	2	−2	3
18	Bouchamma	2	−2	3
19	Stade Gabesien	2	0	2
20	Béni-Khalled	3	−1	2
21	Ariana	2	−1	1
22	Olympique du Kef	2	−1	1
23	AS Gabes	3	−2	1
24	AS Agareb	2	−3	1
25	Moknine	2	−3	1
26	Kerkennah	2	−2	0
27	CO Medenine	2	−2	0
28	EGS Gafsa	2	−4	0