US Monastirienne v Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

US Monastirienne 1–0 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer US MONASTIRIENNE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said US Monastirienne win~~57%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.279

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.399

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said US Monastirienne win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: US Monastirienne was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–28–15
1′KICK-OFF US Monastirienne v Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
3′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' US Monastirienne
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' US Monastirienne win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
35′We said US Monastirienne at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 45–41–14
37′We said US Monastirienne at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–42–13
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was US Monastirienne win 41%)
45′HALF-TIME US Monastirienne 0–0 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' US Monastirienne win: 57% at kick-off, 41% now
46′SECOND HALF US Monastirienne 0–0 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
48′We said US Monastirienne at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–49–12
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' US Monastirienne win: 57% at kick-off, 37% now
51′🟨 YELLOW · 45+6' Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
56′We said US Monastirienne at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–55–11
63′We said US Monastirienne at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–61–10
63′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · On: A. Jouadi · Off: N. Atoui
63′SUBSTITUTION · 57' US Monastirienne · On: Y. Amri · Off: S. Barhoumi
64′US Monastirienne find the net on 63′. 0–0 · 28–62–9
64′We published US Monastirienne at 57%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–9–1
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' US Monastirienne · On: A. Boulila · Off: M. Mehri
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' US Monastirienne 1–0 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' US Monastirienne win: 57% at kick-off, 91% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' US Monastirienne win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 9%)
65′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 91–9–1
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · On: L. Bouraoui · Off: H. Ben Ameur
78′We published US Monastirienne at 57%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' US Monastirienne win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' US Monastirienne
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
90′Full time, 1–0. We called US Monastirienne at 57% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
96′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · On: H. Montassar · Off: F. Ajroudi
96′SUBSTITUTION · 79' US Monastirienne · On: M. Boussadia · Off: C. El Djebali
FTFULL TIME US Monastirienne 1–0 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
FTUS Monastirienne 1–0 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · US Monastirienne win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

US Monastirienne are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: US Monastirienne 57%, draw 27%, Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 15%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 27%.

The AI’s read on US Monastirienne v Progrès Sakiet EddaïerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

US Monastirienne win57%

Draw27%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer win15%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueStade Mustapha Ben Jannet

Line-ups

US Monastirienne

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

US Monastirienne

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 1 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	5	+4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

US Monastirienne

Formation not confirmed

24 A. Slimane

2 M. Ghorbel

3 Y. Herch

19 R. Boukadida

8 M. Mehri

13 R. Azzouz

20 S. Barhoumi

23 C. El Djebali

30 M. Slama

15 B. Yacoub

29 I. Gadiaga

Coach · Romain Folz

Substitutes

1 · R. Besbes

4 · B. Nouicer

12 · A. Bouzganda

21 · R. Jerbi

31 · A. Boulila

33 · B. Randriamalala

10 · Y. Amri

14 · S. Bouali

27 · M. Boussadia

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Formation not confirmed

44 A. Chouaya

2 A. Ba

5 B. I. Bationo

22 M. Laajili

34 H. Rebaii

4 C. Ouni

7 H. Ben Ameur

25 F. Ajroudi

3 B. Mouelhi

9 M. Omri

28 N. Atoui

Coach · –

Substitutes

33 · Y. Touj

21 · W. Attig

26 · A. Azzaza

29 · H. Sallami

10 · L. Bouraoui

11 · H. Montassar

35 · P. Diop

13 · F. Derguech

18 · A. Jouadi

Our number · us monastirienne winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:19 · locked at kick-off

57% The market49%

Us57%

~~Market~~49%

We make US Monastirienne a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · US Monastirienne v Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer~~1.33 – 0.50

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D3 L0 · W3 D2 L0

~~The market · US Monastirienne win~~49% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · US Monastirienne win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
US Monastirienne win	57%	49%	+8
Draw	27%	32%	−5
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer win	15%	20%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	28%	32%	−4
Both teams to score	27%	38%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	53%	57%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	12%	16%	−4
US Monastirienne or draw	85%	80%	+5
US Monastirienne clean sheet	61%	–	–
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 21.8%

0123450 16.0 9.1 2.2 1 21.8 9.5 2.6 2 13.8 6.6 3 6.3 2.9 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+US Monastirienne down, Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,042 Ligue 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

US Monastirienne at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away: 0.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for US Monastirienne, 0.50 for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug

US MONASTIRIENNE

DWDWD0–0 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 0–0

PROGRÈS SAKIET EDDAÏER

WDWDW2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	US Ben Guerdane	6	+5	14
2	ES Tunis	5	+3	12
3	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	5	+4	11
4	Club Africain	4	+2	9
6	CS Sfaxien	5	+2	8
7	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	5	+1	8
8	CA Bizertin	5	0	8
9	Stade Tunisien	4	+2	7
10	ES Zarzis	5	0	6
11	AS Marsa	5	−1	5
12	ES Sahel	5	−2	4
13	CS Hammam-Lif	5	−3	3
14	ES Metlaoui	5	−3	3
15	Olympique Béja	5	−4	2
16	ES Hammam-Sousse	6	−8	1