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US Ben Guerdane v Stade Tunisien

US Ben Guerdane

1–0Full time

Stade Tunisien

Ligue 1 · FRI 23 OCT · 7 March Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 17:02

US Ben Guerdane 1–0 Stade Tunisien US BEN GUERDANE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTUNDER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said US Ben Guerdane win~~35%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.641

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.627

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said US Ben Guerdane win at 35%.
1′Much as we predicted: US Ben Guerdane was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 34% now. 0–0 · 34–33–33
1′KICK-OFF US Ben Guerdane v Stade Tunisien
5′🟨 YELLOW · 5' US Ben Guerdane
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was US Ben Guerdane win 34%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' US Ben Guerdane win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
45′SECOND HALF US Ben Guerdane 0–0 Stade Tunisien
49′HALF-TIME US Ben Guerdane 0–0 Stade Tunisien
51′We said US Ben Guerdane at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–55–22
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Stade Tunisien
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' US Ben Guerdane
56′SUBSTITUTION · 46' US Ben Guerdane · On: I. Touis · Off: N. Chachia
56′SUBSTITUTION · 46' US Ben Guerdane · On: A. Diakite · Off: P. Agbanou
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' US Ben Guerdane · On: H. Aboubacar · Off: D. Oboh
61′We said US Ben Guerdane at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–18
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Stade Tunisien
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Stade Tunisien · On: B. Hmidi · Off: M. Khemissi
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' US Ben Guerdane win: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
71′We said US Ben Guerdane at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–72–14
72′We published US Ben Guerdane at 35%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–12–1
72′Goals are coming at about the 1.7 we expected. 1–0 · 87–12–1
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' US Ben Guerdane 1–0 Stade Tunisien
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' US Ben Guerdane win: 35% at kick-off, 87% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' US Ben Guerdane win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 74%)
73′US Ben Guerdane score on 73′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 88–11–1
76′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Stade Tunisien · On: Y. Toure · Off: M. Thioune
77′We published US Ben Guerdane at 35%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
84′We published US Ben Guerdane at 35%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 68' US Ben Guerdane · On: M. H. Yeken · Off: A. Ben Mcharek
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' US Ben Guerdane win: 35% at kick-off, 95% now
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' US Ben Guerdane
88′SUBSTITUTION · 68' US Ben Guerdane · On: W. Salhi · Off: G. Ayadi
88′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Stade Tunisien · On: Y. Dhaflaoui · Off: S. Sghaier
97′Full time, 1–0. We called US Ben Guerdane at 35% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME US Ben Guerdane 1–0 Stade Tunisien
FTUS Ben Guerdane 1–0 Stade Tunisien · US Ben Guerdane win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with US Ben Guerdane just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: US Ben Guerdane 35%, draw 33%, Stade Tunisien 33%. Over 2.5 goals 24%, both teams to score 31%.

The AI’s read on US Ben Guerdane v Stade TunisienBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

US Ben Guerdane win35%

Draw33%

Stade Tunisien win33%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 7

Venue7 March Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

US Ben Guerdane

Stade Tunisien

6Days since last match12

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue 1 (Tunisia)

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 1 (Tunisia)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · us ben guerdane winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

35% The market35%

Us35%

~~Market~~35%

We make US Ben Guerdane a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are level with the market. The model expects 0.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · US Ben Guerdane v Stade Tunisien~~0.85 – 0.82

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 7~~1 v 10

~~The market · US Ben Guerdane win~~35% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · US Ben Guerdane win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
US Ben Guerdane win	35%	35%	0
Draw	33%	34%	−1
Stade Tunisien win	33%	30%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	24%	31%	−7
Both teams to score	31%	40%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	49%	56%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	9%	15%	−6
US Ben Guerdane or draw	67%	70%	−3
US Ben Guerdane clean sheet	44%	–	–
Stade Tunisien clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.2%

0123450 18.2 16.2 6.3 1 16.8 11.9 5.3 2 6.8 5.5 2.3 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+US Ben Guerdane down, Stade Tunisien across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,046 Ligue 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.1% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

US Ben Guerdane at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Stade Tunisien away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.85 goals for US Ben Guerdane, 0.82 for Stade Tunisien. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~STA 0–0 USB · USB 1–0 STA · STA 1–0 USB · USB 0–0 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug

US BEN GUERDANE

WDDWWW2–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

STADE TUNISIEN

DLWW1–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	US Ben Guerdane	6	+5	14
2	ES Tunis	5	+3	12
4	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	6	+3	11
5	Club Africain	4	+2	9
6	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	6	+1	9
7	CS Sfaxien	5	+2	8
8	CA Bizertin	5	0	8
9	AS Marsa	6	+2	8
10	Stade Tunisien	4	+2	7
11	ES Sahel	6	−1	7
12	ES Zarzis	5	0	6
13	CS Hammam-Lif	6	−3	4
14	ES Metlaoui	6	−6	3
15	Olympique Béja	6	−5	2
16	ES Hammam-Sousse	6	−8	1