Home › Football › Ligue 1 › US Ben Guerdane v Club Africain

US Ben Guerdane v Club Africain

US Ben Guerdane

2–1Full time

Club Africain

Ligue 1 · SAT 10 OCT · 7 March Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

US Ben Guerdane 2–1 Club Africain CLUB AFRICAIN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Club Africain win~~39%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.786

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.005

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Club Africain win at 39%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Club Africain 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 26–35–38
3′KICK-OFF US Ben Guerdane v Club Africain
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' US Ben Guerdane 1–0 Club Africain
20′US Ben Guerdane find the net on 18′. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–24–10
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Club Africain win: 39% at kick-off, 10% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' US Ben Guerdane win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Club Africain win 10%)
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' US Ben Guerdane 1–1 Club Africain
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' US Ben Guerdane 1–1 Club Africain
37′🟨 YELLOW · 38' US Ben Guerdane
41′O. Elsharimi scores for Club Africain on 24′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 21–50–29
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Club Africain
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Club Africain win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was US Ben Guerdane win 21%)
45′SECOND HALF US Ben Guerdane 1–1 Club Africain
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' US Ben Guerdane
70′⚽ GOAL · 71' US Ben Guerdane 2–1 Club Africain
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' US Ben Guerdane
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' US Ben Guerdane
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' US Ben Guerdane 2–1 Club Africain · O. Elsharimi
94′⚽ GOAL · 96' US Ben Guerdane 2–1 Club Africain
96′🟨 YELLOW · 97' US Ben Guerdane
FTFULL TIME US Ben Guerdane 2–1 Club Africain
FTUS Ben Guerdane 2–1 Club Africain · Club Africain win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

US Ben Guerdane win28%

Draw33%

Club Africain win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

Venue · 7 March Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

US Ben Guerdane

Formation not confirmed

31 L. Hammami

14 M. H. Yeken

42 P. Agbanou

25 S. Harrabi

17 A. Amri

40 A. Ben Mcharek

30 D. Oboh

10 G. Ayadi

7 A. M'Ghezzi Bakhouche

8 M. Camara

33 N. Chachia

Coach · Sofiene Hidoussi

Substitutes

20 · J. Bouabcha

27 · W. Salhi

18 · A. Bouatay

26 · I. Touis

16 · M. Karkouba

21 · G. Mounguide

6 · F. Tayechi

9 · A. Diakite

13 · M. Ben Achour

Club Africain

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Chamakh

6 A. Abdelhak

17 G. Zaalouni

33 H. Ben Ali

36 I. Simpara

7 H. Khadhraoui

30 M. Zaddem

32 O. Elsharimi

28 S. Khan

29 H. Mnasri

18 P. Kinzumbi

Coach · Maher Kanzari

Substitutes

31 · A. Harzi

16 · G. Yeferni

20 · H. Chikhaoui

4 · Y. Bouabid

3 · G. Mahersi

10 · M. Mahmoud

34 · T. Nkeng

25 · M. Diatta

35 · R. El Djebali

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

US Ben Guerdane

Formation not confirmed

31 L. Hammami

14 M. H. Yeken

42 P. Agbanou

25 S. Harrabi

17 A. Amri

40 A. Ben Mcharek

30 D. Oboh

10 G. Ayadi

7 A. M'Ghezzi Bakhouche

8 M. Camara

33 N. Chachia

Coach · Sofiene Hidoussi

Substitutes

20 · J. Bouabcha

27 · W. Salhi

18 · A. Bouatay

26 · I. Touis

16 · M. Karkouba

21 · G. Mounguide

6 · F. Tayechi

9 · A. Diakite

13 · M. Ben Achour

Club Africain

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Chamakh

6 A. Abdelhak

17 G. Zaalouni

33 H. Ben Ali

36 I. Simpara

7 H. Khadhraoui

30 M. Zaddem

32 O. Elsharimi

28 S. Khan

29 H. Mnasri

18 P. Kinzumbi

Coach · Maher Kanzari

Substitutes

31 · A. Harzi

16 · G. Yeferni

20 · H. Chikhaoui

4 · Y. Bouabid

3 · G. Mahersi

10 · M. Mahmoud

34 · T. Nkeng

25 · M. Diatta

35 · R. El Djebali

Our number · club africain winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

39% The market48%

Us39%

~~Market~~48%

We make Club Africain a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · club africain win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
US Ben Guerdane win	28%	19%	+9
Draw	33%	33%	0
Club Africain win	39%	48%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	22%	31%	−9
Both teams to score	29%	37%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	47%	56%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	8%	15%	−7
US Ben Guerdane or draw	61%	52%	+9
US Ben Guerdane clean sheet	40%	–	–
Club Africain clean sheet	50%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.1%

0123450 19.1 18.8 8.3 2.6 1 14.8 11.6 5.7 2 5.0 4.5 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+US Ben Guerdane down, Club Africain across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,033 Ligue 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.3% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 1.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

US Ben Guerdane at home: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Club Africain away: 0.83 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.71 goals for US Ben Guerdane, 0.92 for Club Africain. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 12

~~Both scored~~5 of 12

~~Last meetings~~USB 0–1 CLU · CLU 2–0 USB · CLU 0–0 USB · USB 2–2 CLU

Form · last six in Ligue 1

US BEN GUERDANE

DLWDDW0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–0

CLUB AFRICAIN

WWDWWW2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club Africain	3	+3	9
2	ES Tunis	4	+1	9
3	CS Sfaxien	4	+3	8
4	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	4	+3	8
5	US Ben Guerdane	4	+2	8
6	US Monastirienne	4	+2	8
7	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	4	+1	7
8	CA Bizertin	4	0	7
9	Stade Tunisien	3	+1	4
10	ES Sahel	4	−1	4
11	AS Marsa	4	−1	4
12	ES Zarzis	4	−2	3
13	ES Metlaoui	4	−2	3
14	Olympique Béja	4	−2	2
15	ES Hammam-Sousse	4	−4	1
16	CS Hammam-Lif	4	−4	0