Stade Tunisien v ES Zarzis prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Stade TunisienDrawES Zarzis

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Stade Tunisien 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stade Tunisien are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stade Tunisien 51%, draw 29%, ES Zarzis 20%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on Stade Tunisien v ES ZarzisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Stade Tunisien win51%

Draw29%

ES Zarzis win20%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueStade Hedi-Enneifer

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stade Tunisien

ES Zarzis

6Days since last match5

Last match: 23 Oct · Ligue 1 (Tunisia)

Last match: 24 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Stade Tunisien	5	+1	7
12	ES Zarzis	5	0	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stade tunisien winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 24 Oct 00:23 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Stade Tunisien a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 20%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stade Tunisien v ES Zarzis~~1.23 – 0.64

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 6~~10 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stade Tunisien win

Published at 52%, 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stade Tunisien win	51%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
ES Zarzis win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	29%	–	–
Both teams to score	32%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	55%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Stade Tunisien or draw	80%	–	–
Stade Tunisien clean sheet	53%	–	–
ES Zarzis clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.6%

0123450 15.1 10.7 3.2 1 19.6 11.1 3.8 2 11.5 7.2 2.3 3 4.8 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stade Tunisien down, ES Zarzis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,050 Ligue 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stade Tunisien at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). ES Zarzis away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Stade Tunisien, 0.64 for ES Zarzis. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ESZ 0–0 STA · STA 3–0 ESZ · STA 1–1 ESZ · ESZ 1–1 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug

STADE TUNISIEN

DLWWL1–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 0–1

ES ZARZIS

WLLLW1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	US Ben Guerdane	7	+6	17
2	ES Tunis	5	+3	12
4	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	6	+3	11
5	CA Bizertin	6	+2	11
6	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	7	+1	10
7	Club Africain	4	+2	9
8	AS Marsa	7	+2	9
9	CS Sfaxien	5	+2	8
10	Stade Tunisien	5	+1	7
11	ES Sahel	6	−1	7
12	ES Zarzis	5	0	6
13	CS Hammam-Lif	7	−3	5
14	Olympique Béja	7	−5	3
15	ES Metlaoui	6	−6	3
16	ES Hammam-Sousse	7	−10	1