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Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer v CS Sfaxien

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1–0Full time

CS Sfaxien

Ligue 1 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1–0 CS Sfaxien CS SFAXIEN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTUNDER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CS Sfaxien win~~43%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.853

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.746

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CS Sfaxien win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: CS Sfaxien 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 23–34–43
1′KICK-OFF Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer v CS Sfaxien
12′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
12′🟨 YELLOW · 10' CS Sfaxien
15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' CS Sfaxien
32′⚽ GOAL · 30' Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1–0 CS Sfaxien
40′Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer ahead on 30′ through M. Omri. 1–0. 1–0 · 68–24–8
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' CS Sfaxien win: 43% at kick-off, 8% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was CS Sfaxien win 8%)
45′HALF-TIME Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1–0 CS Sfaxien
47′SECOND HALF Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1–0 CS Sfaxien
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
90′🟨 YELLOW · 99' Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
FTFULL TIME Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1–0 CS Sfaxien
FTProgrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1–0 CS Sfaxien · CS Sfaxien win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer win25%

Draw32%

CS Sfaxien win43%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Formation not confirmed

44 A. Chouaya

2 A. Ba

5 B. I. Bationo

34 H. Rebaii

4 C. Ouni

25 F. Ajroudi

7 H. Ben Ameur

22 M. Laajili

3 B. Mouelhi

9 M. Omri

30 N. Atoui

Coach · –

Substitutes

– · H. Sellami

18 · A. Jaouadi

33 · Y. Touj

21 · W. Attig

26 · A. Azzaza

10 · L. Bouraoui

31 · A. Bahloul

13 · F. Derguech

– · H. Montassar

CS Sfaxien

Formation not confirmed

30 A. Dahmen

10 A. Maaloul

24 H. Mathlouthi

15 K. Mondeko Zatu

13 R. Derbali

14 J. Mbe

19 L. Trayi

33 M. Trabelsi

4 Y. Habchia

18 E. Ogbole

11 I. Belwafi

Coach · Mohamed Kouki

Substitutes

22 · A. Hallaoui

7 · G. Sghaier

6 · M. Absi

3 · M. A. Ben Ali

32 · H. Ouedraogo

27 · B. Diarra

25 · H. Mutebi

20 · W. Dhouib

17 · M. S. Mhadhebi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Formation not confirmed

44 A. Chouaya

2 A. Ba

5 B. I. Bationo

34 H. Rebaii

4 C. Ouni

25 F. Ajroudi

7 H. Ben Ameur

22 M. Laajili

3 B. Mouelhi

9 M. Omri

30 N. Atoui

Coach · –

Substitutes

– · H. Sellami

18 · A. Jaouadi

33 · Y. Touj

21 · W. Attig

26 · A. Azzaza

10 · L. Bouraoui

31 · A. Bahloul

13 · F. Derguech

– · H. Montassar

CS Sfaxien

Formation not confirmed

30 A. Dahmen

10 A. Maaloul

24 H. Mathlouthi

15 K. Mondeko Zatu

13 R. Derbali

14 J. Mbe

19 L. Trayi

33 M. Trabelsi

4 Y. Habchia

18 E. Ogbole

11 I. Belwafi

Coach · Mohamed Kouki

Substitutes

22 · A. Hallaoui

7 · G. Sghaier

6 · M. Absi

3 · M. A. Ben Ali

32 · H. Ouedraogo

27 · B. Diarra

25 · H. Mutebi

20 · W. Dhouib

17 · M. S. Mhadhebi

Our number · cs sfaxien winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

43% The market37%

Us43%

~~Market~~37%

We make CS Sfaxien a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cs sfaxien win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer win	25%	30%	−5
Draw	32%	33%	−1
CS Sfaxien win	43%	37%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	23%	32%	−9
Both teams to score	28%	41%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	48%	57%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	9%	16%	−7
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or draw	57%	63%	−6
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer clean sheet	38%	–	–
CS Sfaxien clean sheet	53%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 19.6%

0123450 18.8 19.6 9.5 3.4 1 13.6 11.0 5.8 2.0 2 4.4 4.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer down, CS Sfaxien across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,033 Ligue 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.3% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at home: 1.50 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 2). CS Sfaxien away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.65 goals for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer, 1.00 for CS Sfaxien. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Ligue 1

PROGRÈS SAKIET EDDAÏER

WDWD2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

CS SFAXIEN

WWDWDW3–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club Africain	3	+3	9
2	ES Tunis	4	+1	9
3	CS Sfaxien	4	+3	8
4	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	4	+3	8
5	US Ben Guerdane	4	+2	8
6	US Monastirienne	4	+2	8
7	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	4	+1	7
8	CA Bizertin	4	0	7
9	Stade Tunisien	3	+1	4
10	ES Sahel	4	−1	4
11	AS Marsa	4	−1	4
12	ES Zarzis	4	−2	3
13	ES Metlaoui	4	−2	3
14	Olympique Béja	4	−2	2
15	ES Hammam-Sousse	4	−4	1
16	CS Hammam-Lif	4	−4	0