Olympique Béja v ES Sahel prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Olympique Béja 1–2 ES Sahel ES SAHEL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ES Sahel win~~40%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.533

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.507

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ES Sahel win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: ES Sahel 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 31–29–40
1′KICK-OFF Olympique Béja v ES Sahel
8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Olympique Béja
10′ES Sahel score on 9′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–20–70
10′We said ES Sahel at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–20–70
10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Olympique Béja 0–1 ES Sahel
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' ES Sahel win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
20′ES Sahel find the net on 19′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
20′We said ES Sahel at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Olympique Béja 0–2 ES Sahel
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' ES Sahel win: 40% at kick-off, 92% now
36′A goal for Olympique Béja on 36′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 6–20–74
36′3 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 6–20–74
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Olympique Béja 1–2 ES Sahel
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' ES Sahel win: 40% at kick-off, 74% now
38′We said ES Sahel at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 6–20–75
41′I. Ogoulola scores for Olympique Béja on 35′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 5–19–75
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' ES Sahel
45′HALF-TIME Olympique Béja 1–2 ES Sahel
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+6' M. Hedhli · Olympique Béja
46′SECOND HALF Olympique Béja 1–2 ES Sahel
52′PENALTY MISSED · 52' ES Sahel
57′We said ES Sahel at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' ES Sahel win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
69′We said ES Sahel at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
69′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Olympique Béja · On: O. Sayari · Off: E. H. Gafsi
73′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Olympique Béja · On: F. Ben Hssine · Off: I. Ogoulola
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' ES Sahel win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' ES Sahel · On: A. Amri · Off: A. Ben Dhiaf
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' ES Sahel
84′We said ES Sahel at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Olympique Béja
88′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Olympique Béja · On: M. H. Hadouchi · Off: M. Ben Rajeh
92′A second red card for Olympique Béja on 90′ — they are down to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 0–2–98
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Olympique Béja
92′🟥 RED CARD · 90+2' Olympique Béja
95′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' Olympique Béja
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Olympique Béja
99′Olympique Béja are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Olympique Béja 1–2 ES Sahel
FTOlympique Béja 1–2 ES Sahel · ES Sahel win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ES Sahel are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Olympique Béja 31%, draw 29%, ES Sahel 40%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Olympique Béja v ES SahelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Olympique Béja win31%

Draw29%

ES Sahel win40%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueBoujemaa Kmiti Stadium

Line-ups

Olympique Béja

ES Sahel

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Olympique Béja

ES Sahel

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 1 (Tunisia)

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 1 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	ES Sahel	5	−2	4
15	Olympique Béja	5	−4	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Olympique Béja

Formation not confirmed

16 C. Smaoui

3 M. Ben Rajeh

5 H. Mabrouk

24 Y. Azib

12 A. Sidibe

13 M. Ammar

21 F. Fadhli

26 I. Ogoulola

7 R. Homri

11 E. H. Gafsi

29 M. W. Djoumekou R.

Coach · Nacif Beyaoui

Substitutes

30 · H. Chairet

25 · C. Camara

6 · M. Hedhli

8 · M. Ali Nefzi

20 · A. Ishimwe

10 · M. H. Hadouchi

17 · B. Hasni

19 · O. Sayari

27 · F. Ben Hssine

ES Sahel

Formation not confirmed

16 S. Ben Hessen

2 W. Kechrida

5 P. Lanquetin

14 N. Ferjani

15 B. Diarra

8 O. Abid

19 M. Bouslama

25 O. Diakhate

7 A. Ben Dhiaf

20 W. Emuwahen

30 R. Anane

Coach · Christian Bracconi

Substitutes

36 · R. Gazzeh

33 · H. Dagdoug

10 · A. Amri

22 · A. Zorgati

26 · M. Hassine

34 · R. Gara

17 · N. Smichi

18 · Y. Rjab

28 · K. Eduwo

Our number · es sahel winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

40% The market42%

Us40%

~~Market~~42%

We make ES Sahel a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Olympique Béja v ES Sahel~~0.90 – 1.09

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 23 Aug~~W0 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 2 v 4~~15 v 12

~~The market · ES Sahel win~~42% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ES Sahel win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olympique Béja win	31%	26%	+5
Draw	29%	32%	−3
ES Sahel win	40%	42%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	32%	38%	−6
Both teams to score	38%	45%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	58%	63%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	14%	20%	−6
Olympique Béja or draw	60%	58%	+2
Olympique Béja clean sheet	34%	–	–
ES Sahel clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.8%

0123450 13.1 15.8 8.1 3.0 1 13.3 12.2 7.1 2.6 2 5.6 5.9 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olympique Béja down, ES Sahel across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,042 Ligue 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olympique Béja at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). ES Sahel away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Olympique Béja, 1.09 for ES Sahel. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~OLY 3–1 ESS · ESS 1–2 OLY · OLY 0–2 ESS · ESS 0–1 OLY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 23 Aug

OLYMPIQUE BÉJA

LLDDL0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

ES SAHEL

LWDLL2–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	US Ben Guerdane	6	+5	14
2	ES Tunis	5	+3	12
3	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	5	+4	11
4	Club Africain	4	+2	9
6	CS Sfaxien	5	+2	8
7	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	5	+1	8
8	CA Bizertin	5	0	8
9	Stade Tunisien	4	+2	7
10	ES Zarzis	5	0	6
11	AS Marsa	5	−1	5
12	ES Sahel	5	−2	4
13	CS Hammam-Lif	5	−3	3
14	ES Metlaoui	5	−3	3
15	Olympique Béja	5	−4	2
16	ES Hammam-Sousse	6	−8	1