Jeunesse Sportive Omrane v AS Marsa prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 0–0 AS Marsa JEUNESSE SPORTIVE OMRANE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win~~48%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.808

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.707

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF Jeunesse Sportive Omrane v AS Marsa
2′Little has changed for our model: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–30–23
4′Little has changed for our model: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 48% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–30–23
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win: 48% at kick-off, 43% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win: 48% at kick-off, 43% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′We said Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–46–20
45′HALF-TIME Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 0–0 AS Marsa
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win 35%)
46′SECOND HALF Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 0–0 AS Marsa
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win: 48% at kick-off, 35% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win 35%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win: 48% at kick-off, 35% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win 35%)
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' AS Marsa
69′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' AS Marsa
70′🟨 YELLOW · 67' AS Marsa
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' AS Marsa
FTFULL TIME Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 0–0 AS Marsa
FTJeunesse Sportive Omrane 0–0 AS Marsa · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win48%

Draw28%

AS Marsa win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

VenueStade Chedly Zouiten

Line-ups

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

AS Marsa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

AS Marsa

28Days since last match29

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	4	+1	7
11	AS Marsa	4	−1	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

Formation not confirmed

22 O. Hanzouli

5 S. Marouani

12 M. Souissi

20 S. Hammami

27 B. Mgannem

30 H. Kouki

8 A. Jouini

19 M. Ben Amor

6 A. C. Chinonso

9 B. Touati

11 O. Belhaj

Coach · Amine Beji

Substitutes

1 · W. Karoui

4 · K. Othmani

15 · A. Gharbi

25 · M. Jammel

10 · G. Ben Hamida

7 · S. Abdelli

17 · C. Zoughlami

28 · M. Askri

33 · H. Guezmir

AS Marsa

Formation not confirmed

16 H. Ben Cherifia

5 O. Bahri

17 O. Jebali

34 M. Kechiche

6 K. Khalfa

8 A. Gasmi

28 A. Ben Hamida

2 M. Chaouch

7 F. Iffia

10 M. Hamrouni

18 N. Mani

Coach · Imed Ben Younes

Substitutes

1 · M. Ben Braiek

4 · A. Wadud

12 · Y. Boukhris

20 · F. Meskini

13 · A. Traidi

21 · O. Adejoh

24 · O. Mejri

25 · Y. Dao

30 · K. Maacha

Our number · jeunesse sportive omrane winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

48% The market41%

Us48%

~~Market~~41%

We make Jeunesse Sportive Omrane a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · jeunesse sportive omrane win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win	48%	41%	+7
Draw	28%	32%	−4
AS Marsa win	25%	27%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	33%	35%	−3
Both teams to score	37%	43%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	59%	60%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	15%	18%	−3
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or draw	75%	73%	+3
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane clean sheet	46%	–	–
AS Marsa clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.2%

0123450 12.8 11.4 4.1 1 17.2 11.7 4.9 2 10.0 7.7 3.0 3 4.2 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jeunesse Sportive Omrane down, AS Marsa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,037 Ligue 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.3% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). AS Marsa away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane, 0.78 for AS Marsa. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~JEU 2–2 ASM · ASM 2–1 JEU

Form · last six in Ligue 1

JEUNESSE SPORTIVE OMRANE

LDLWDW1–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

AS MARSA

LDLDLW0–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ES Tunis	5	+3	12
2	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	5	+4	11
3	US Ben Guerdane	5	+3	11
4	US Monastirienne	5	+2	9
5	Club Africain	4	+2	9
6	CS Sfaxien	5	+2	8
7	CA Bizertin	5	0	8
8	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	4	+1	7
9	Stade Tunisien	3	+1	4
10	ES Sahel	4	−1	4
11	AS Marsa	4	−1	4
12	ES Zarzis	4	−2	3
13	ES Metlaoui	4	−2	3
14	Olympique Béja	5	−4	2
15	ES Hammam-Sousse	4	−4	1
16	CS Hammam-Lif	4	−4	0