ES Zarzis v ES Hammam-Sousse prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

ES Zarzis 2–0 ES Hammam-Sousse ES ZARZIS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ES Zarzis win~~54%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.314

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.351

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ES Zarzis win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: ES Zarzis was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–28–18
6′Much as we predicted: ES Zarzis was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–29–18
40′We said ES Zarzis at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–41–17
45′We said ES Zarzis at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–44–16
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' ES Zarzis win: 54% at kick-off, 45% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' ES Zarzis win: 54% at kick-off, 42% now
45′HALF-TIME ES Zarzis 0–0 ES Hammam-Sousse
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' ES Zarzis win: 54% at kick-off, 40% now
46′SECOND HALF ES Zarzis 0–0 ES Hammam-Sousse
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' ES Zarzis 1–0 ES Hammam-Sousse
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' ES Zarzis
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' ES Zarzis
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' ES Zarzis
60′🟨 YELLOW · 58' ES Zarzis
66′🟨 YELLOW · 12' ES Hammam-Sousse
66′⚽ GOAL · 48' ES Zarzis 1–0 ES Hammam-Sousse · M. Jertila
66′🟨 YELLOW · 49' ES Zarzis
66′🟨 YELLOW · 52' ES Zarzis
66′🟨 YELLOW · 58' ES Zarzis
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' ES Zarzis 2–0 ES Hammam-Sousse
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' ES Zarzis
FTFULL TIME ES Zarzis 2–0 ES Hammam-Sousse
FTES Zarzis 2–0 ES Hammam-Sousse · ES Zarzis win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

ES Zarzis win54%

Draw26%

ES Hammam-Sousse win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

VenueAbdessalem Kazouz Stadium

Line-ups

ES Zarzis

ES Hammam-Sousse

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

ES Zarzis

ES Hammam-Sousse

21Days since last match29

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	ES Zarzis	4	−2	3
15	ES Hammam-Sousse	4	−4	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

ES Zarzis

Formation not confirmed

22 S. Charfi

25 J. Belkilani

29 S. Diouf

30 S. Touj

35 H. Mounadi

17 D. Nyengue

20 M. Smaali

26 Y. El Kassah

7 H. Labidi

9 K. Sowe

10 M. Jertila

Coach · Chokri Khatoui

Substitutes

32 · H. Ghanmi

3 · Y. Laariadh

28 · L. Rjili

4 · A. Toure

6 · O. Toure

11 · A. Garreb

15 · A. Oluwaseun

18 · Y. Dhiflaoui

27 · A. Tajourii

ES Hammam-Sousse

Formation not confirmed

30 M. Hazgui

2 N. El Beji

3 G. Abderrazzak

5 J. Moussa

29 M. A. Helal

20 M. Baayou

6 Figo

11 M. A. Jarraya

13 M. Sassi

24 O. Martin

33 T. Ben Zitoun

Coach · Ferid Chouchane

Substitutes

32 · C. Nasreli

4 · O. Tenguiano

17 · R. Ouni

15 · A. Moataz

23 · A. Jaziri

34 · I. Houli

8 · A. Hssine

19 · A. Chaabane

22 · M. Ben Salah

Our number · es zarzis winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

54% The market52%

Us54%

~~Market~~52%

We make ES Zarzis a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · es zarzis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ES Zarzis win	54%	52%	+2
Draw	26%	30%	−4
ES Hammam-Sousse win	20%	18%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	35%	33%	+2
Both teams to score	36%	37%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	60%	58%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	16%	15%	+1
ES Zarzis or draw	80%	82%	−2
ES Zarzis clean sheet	51%	–	–
ES Hammam-Sousse clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.0%

0123450 12.2 9.6 3.0 1 18.0 10.7 4.0 2 11.8 7.9 2.7 3 5.6 3.8 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ES Zarzis down, ES Hammam-Sousse across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,037 Ligue 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.3% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ES Zarzis at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). ES Hammam-Sousse away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for ES Zarzis, 0.69 for ES Hammam-Sousse. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ESZ 1–1 HAM · HAM 1–1 ESZ

Form · last six in Ligue 1

ES ZARZIS

WWWLLL1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1

ES HAMMAM-SOUSSE

LWDLLL1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ES Tunis	5	+3	12
2	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	5	+4	11
3	US Ben Guerdane	5	+3	11
4	US Monastirienne	5	+2	9
5	Club Africain	4	+2	9
6	CS Sfaxien	5	+2	8
7	CA Bizertin	5	0	8
8	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	4	+1	7
9	Stade Tunisien	3	+1	4
10	ES Sahel	4	−1	4
11	AS Marsa	4	−1	4
12	ES Zarzis	4	−2	3
13	ES Metlaoui	4	−2	3
14	Olympique Béja	5	−4	2
15	ES Hammam-Sousse	4	−4	1
16	CS Hammam-Lif	4	−4	0