ES Tunis v US Monastirienne prediction · Ligue 1

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

ES Tunis are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ES Tunis 51%, draw 28%, US Monastirienne 21%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on ES Tunis v US MonastirienneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

ES Tunis win51%

Draw28%

US Monastirienne win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueStade Hedi-Enneifer

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ES Tunis

US Monastirienne

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · CAF Champions League

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 1 (Tunisia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	ES Tunis	5	+3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · es tunis winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

51% The market–

Us51%

We make ES Tunis a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ES Tunis v US Monastirienne~~1.26 – 0.68

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D0 L1 · W3 D3 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ES Tunis win	51%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
US Monastirienne win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	31%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	57%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
ES Tunis or draw	79%	–	–
ES Tunis clean sheet	51%	–	–
US Monastirienne clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.8%

0123450 13.9 10.7 3.4 1 18.8 11.2 4.2 2 11.2 7.5 2.6 3 4.8 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ES Tunis down, US Monastirienne across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,046 Ligue 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.1% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ES Tunis at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). US Monastirienne away: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for ES Tunis, 0.68 for US Monastirienne. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~USM 2–1 EST · EST 1–1 USM · EST 0–0 USM · USM 0–2 EST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug

ES TUNIS

WLWWW3–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–1

US MONASTIRIENNE

DWDWDW0–0 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	US Ben Guerdane	6	+5	14
2	ES Tunis	5	+3	12
4	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	6	+3	11
5	Club Africain	4	+2	9
6	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	6	+1	9
7	CS Sfaxien	5	+2	8
8	CA Bizertin	5	0	8
9	AS Marsa	6	+2	8
10	Stade Tunisien	4	+2	7
11	ES Sahel	6	−1	7
12	ES Zarzis	5	0	6
13	CS Hammam-Lif	6	−3	4
14	ES Metlaoui	6	−6	3
15	Olympique Béja	6	−5	2
16	ES Hammam-Sousse	6	−8	1