Home › Football › Ligue 1 › ES Tunis v Olympique Béja

ES Tunis v Olympique Béja

ES Tunis

3–1Full time

Olympique Béja

Ligue 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Stade Hedi-Enneifer

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

ES Tunis 3–1 Olympique Béja ES TUNIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ES Tunis win~~77%

~~The market said~~81%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.080

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.058

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ES Tunis win at 77%.
3′1′ and it is 1–0: ES Tunis have scored. 1–0 · 94–5–1
3′KICK-OFF ES Tunis v Olympique Béja
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' ES Tunis win: 77% at kick-off, 94% now
13′⚽ GOAL · 1' ES Tunis 2–0 Olympique Béja
13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' ES Tunis
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' ES Tunis 2–0 Olympique Béja
21′ES Tunis ahead on 13′ through H. Mastouri. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' ES Tunis win: 77% at kick-off, 99% now
38′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Olympique Béja
42′We said ES Tunis at 77% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
45′HALF-TIME ES Tunis 2–0 Olympique Béja
46′SECOND HALF ES Tunis 2–0 Olympique Béja
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' ES Tunis 3–0 Olympique Béja
61′⚽ GOAL · 59' ES Tunis 3–1 Olympique Béja
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Olympique Béja
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' ES Tunis
FTFULL TIME ES Tunis 3–1 Olympique Béja
FTES Tunis 3–1 Olympique Béja · ES Tunis win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

ES Tunis win77%

Draw15%

Olympique Béja win7%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

Venue · Stade Hedi-Enneifer

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

ES Tunis

Formation not confirmed

32 B. Ben Said

13 M. Drager

12 N. Laifi

25 R. Chikhaoui

6 H. Jelassi

8 H. Rafia

7 I. Faraj

16 J. Castillo

10 Lucas Ribeiro

27 H. Mastouri

11 Y. Belaili

Coach · Pablo Franco

Substitutes

20 · M. Belhadj

31 · C. Jebali

39 · M. Haj Ali

24 · Y. Becha

28 · A. Alilet

1 · A. Memmiche

19 · A. Jabri

3 · E. Fernandez

21 · A. Konate

Olympique Béja

Formation not confirmed

16 C. Smaoui

4 I. Chelghoumi

3 M. Ben Rajeh

24 Y. Azib

12 A. Sidibe

21 F. Fadhli

5 H. Mabrouk

56 I. Ogoulola

8 M. Ammar

7 R. Homri

29 M. W. Djoumekou R.

Coach · Nacif Beyaoui

Substitutes

27 · F. Ben Hassine

17 · B. Hasni

51 · C. Camara

54 · M. Hedhli

20 · A. Ishimwe

57 · N. Hasni

1 · H. Chairet

58 · M. Ali Nefzi

53 · O. Sayari

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

ES Tunis

Formation not confirmed

32 B. Ben Said

13 M. Drager

12 N. Laifi

25 R. Chikhaoui

6 H. Jelassi

8 H. Rafia

7 I. Faraj

16 J. Castillo

10 Lucas Ribeiro

27 H. Mastouri

11 Y. Belaili

Coach · Pablo Franco

Substitutes

20 · M. Belhadj

31 · C. Jebali

39 · M. Haj Ali

24 · Y. Becha

28 · A. Alilet

1 · A. Memmiche

19 · A. Jabri

3 · E. Fernandez

21 · A. Konate

Olympique Béja

Formation not confirmed

16 C. Smaoui

4 I. Chelghoumi

3 M. Ben Rajeh

24 Y. Azib

12 A. Sidibe

21 F. Fadhli

5 H. Mabrouk

56 I. Ogoulola

8 M. Ammar

7 R. Homri

29 M. W. Djoumekou R.

Coach · Nacif Beyaoui

Substitutes

27 · F. Ben Hassine

17 · B. Hasni

51 · C. Camara

54 · M. Hedhli

20 · A. Ishimwe

57 · N. Hasni

1 · H. Chairet

58 · M. Ali Nefzi

53 · O. Sayari

Our number · es tunis winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

77% The market81%

Us77%

~~Market~~81%

We make ES Tunis a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 81%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · es tunis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 81% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ES Tunis win	77%	81%	−4
Draw	15%	14%	+1
Olympique Béja win	7%	5%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	54%	−4
Both teams to score	32%	30%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	76%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	33%	−4
ES Tunis or draw	93%	95%	−2
ES Tunis clean sheet	63%	–	–
Olympique Béja clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 16.3%

0123450 6.7 3.9 1 15.7 6.6 2 16.3 7.5 3 12.0 5.5 4 6.9 3.1 5 3.3

under 2% 5% 12%+ES Tunis down, Olympique Béja across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,033 Ligue 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.3% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ES Tunis at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Olympique Béja away: 0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.23 goals for ES Tunis, 0.47 for Olympique Béja. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~OLY 0–3 EST · EST 2–0 OLY · OLY 0–5 EST · EST 1–1 OLY

Form · last six in Ligue 1

ES TUNIS

LWWLWW0–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–0

OLYMPIQUE BÉJA

WDLLDD2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club Africain	3	+3	9
2	ES Tunis	4	+1	9
3	CS Sfaxien	4	+3	8
4	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	4	+3	8
5	US Ben Guerdane	4	+2	8
6	US Monastirienne	4	+2	8
7	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	4	+1	7
8	CA Bizertin	4	0	7
9	Stade Tunisien	3	+1	4
10	ES Sahel	4	−1	4
11	AS Marsa	4	−1	4
12	ES Zarzis	4	−2	3
13	ES Metlaoui	4	−2	3
14	Olympique Béja	4	−2	2
15	ES Hammam-Sousse	4	−4	1
16	CS Hammam-Lif	4	−4	0