ES Sahel v CS Sfaxien prediction · Ligue 1

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Close to call, with CS Sfaxien just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: ES Sahel 32%, draw 32%, CS Sfaxien 36%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on ES Sahel v CS SfaxienBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

ES Sahel win32%

Draw32%

CS Sfaxien win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueStade Olympique de Sousse

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ES Sahel

CS Sfaxien

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 1 (Tunisia)

Last match: 17 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	CS Sfaxien	5	+2	8
11	ES Sahel	6	−1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cs sfaxien winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

36% The market–

Us36%

We make CS Sfaxien a 36% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ES Sahel v CS Sfaxien~~0.84 – 0.92

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 8~~11 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ES Sahel win	32%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
CS Sfaxien win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	33%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	51%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
ES Sahel or draw	64%	–	–
ES Sahel clean sheet	40%	–	–
CS Sfaxien clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.8%

0123450 16.8 16.7 7.3 2.3 1 15.3 12.0 5.9 2 6.1 5.4 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ES Sahel down, CS Sfaxien across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,046 Ligue 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.1% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ES Sahel at home: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). CS Sfaxien away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.84 goals for ES Sahel, 0.92 for CS Sfaxien. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CSS 3–1 ESS · ESS 0–1 CSS · ESS 0–1 CSS · CSS 0–1 ESS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug

ES SAHEL

LWDLLW2–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

CS SFAXIEN

DWDWL1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	US Ben Guerdane	6	+5	14
2	ES Tunis	5	+3	12
4	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	6	+3	11
5	Club Africain	4	+2	9
6	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	6	+1	9
7	CS Sfaxien	5	+2	8
8	CA Bizertin	5	0	8
9	AS Marsa	6	+2	8
10	Stade Tunisien	4	+2	7
11	ES Sahel	6	−1	7
12	ES Zarzis	5	0	6
13	CS Hammam-Lif	6	−3	4
14	ES Metlaoui	6	−6	3
15	Olympique Béja	6	−5	2
16	ES Hammam-Sousse	6	−8	1