ES Sahel v CS Hammam-Lif prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

ES Sahel 0–1 CS Hammam-Lif ES SAHEL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ES Sahel win~~57%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.082

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.240

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ES Sahel win at 57%.
2′Much as we predicted: ES Sahel was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–28–16
4′Much as we predicted: ES Sahel was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–29–16
17′CS Hammam-Lif ahead on 10′ through C. Fradj. 0–1. 0–1 · 23–29–48
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' ES Sahel win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was CS Hammam-Lif win 16%)
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' ES Sahel win: 57% at kick-off, 23% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' CS Hammam-Lif win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was ES Sahel win 23%)
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' ES Sahel win: 57% at kick-off, 56% now
19′CS Hammam-Lif ahead on 10′ through C. Fradj. 0–1. 0–1 · 22–29–49
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' ES Sahel win: 57% at kick-off, 56% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' ES Sahel win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was CS Hammam-Lif win 16%)
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' ES Sahel win: 57% at kick-off, 23% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' CS Hammam-Lif win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was ES Sahel win 23%)
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' ES Sahel win: 57% at kick-off, 22% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' CS Hammam-Lif win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was ES Sahel win 22%)
36′We said ES Sahel at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–29–55
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' ES Sahel win: 57% at kick-off, 16% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' ES Sahel win: 57% at kick-off, 23% now
37′We said ES Sahel at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–29–55
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' ES Sahel win: 57% at kick-off, 23% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' ES Sahel win: 57% at kick-off, 16% now
40′🟨 YELLOW · 5' CS Hammam-Lif
40′⚽ GOAL · 10' ES Sahel 0–1 CS Hammam-Lif · C. Fradj
45′We said ES Sahel at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–29–59
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' ES Sahel 1–1 CS Hammam-Lif
45′HALF-TIME ES Sahel 0–1 CS Hammam-Lif
46′SECOND HALF ES Sahel 0–1 CS Hammam-Lif
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' ES Sahel win: 57% at kick-off, 12% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' CS Hammam-Lif win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was ES Sahel win 12%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' ES Sahel win: 57% at kick-off, 12% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' CS Hammam-Lif win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was ES Sahel win 12%)
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' CS Hammam-Lif
70′🟨 YELLOW · 5' CS Hammam-Lif
70′⚽ GOAL · 10' ES Sahel 0–1 CS Hammam-Lif · C. Fradj
70′🟨 YELLOW · 52' CS Hammam-Lif
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' CS Hammam-Lif
86′🟥 RED CARD · 85' CS Hammam-Lif
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' CS Hammam-Lif
90′🟨 YELLOW · 98' ES Sahel
FTFULL TIME ES Sahel 0–1 CS Hammam-Lif
FTES Sahel 0–1 CS Hammam-Lif · ES Sahel win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

ES Sahel win57%

Draw26%

CS Hammam-Lif win17%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

VenueStade Olympique de Sousse

Line-ups

ES Sahel

CS Hammam-Lif

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

ES Sahel

CS Hammam-Lif

29Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	ES Sahel	4	−1	4
16	CS Hammam-Lif	4	−4	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

ES Sahel

Formation not confirmed

16 S. Ben Hessen

2 W. Kechrida

5 P. Lanquetin

14 N. Ferjani

15 B. Diarra

8 O. Abid

25 O. Diakhate

7 A. Ben Dhiaf

9 M. Chaabani

29 M. Senghor

30 R. Anane

Coach · Christian Bracconi

Substitutes

36 · R. Gazzeh

33 · H. Dagdoug

10 · A. Amri

22 · A. Zorgati

26 · M. Hassine

34 · R. Gara

17 · N. Smichi

20 · W. Emuwahen

28 · K. Eduwo

CS Hammam-Lif

Formation not confirmed

40 M. Ben Cherifia

5 A. Koudhai

10 H. Ghrairi

12 H. Mhamdi

15 C. Fradj

23 F. Ben Ammar

26 B. Sellami

6 N. Sangare

25 W. Barhoumi

7 M. Ben Tiba

11 Z. Ben Salem

Coach · Chamseddine Dhaouadi

Substitutes

1 · I. Ben Mansour

2 · A. Abassi

13 · A. Boukeba

14 · A. S. Berete

18 · T. Laabidi

29 · I. Dridi

9 · M. Mejri

19 · Y. Chamakhi

21 · R. Kamergi

Our number · es sahel winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

57% The market64%

Us57%

~~Market~~64%

We make ES Sahel a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · es sahel win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ES Sahel win	57%	64%	−7
Draw	26%	24%	+2
CS Hammam-Lif win	17%	12%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	31%	40%	−8
Both teams to score	31%	36%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	57%	64%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	14%	21%	−7
ES Sahel or draw	83%	88%	−5
ES Sahel clean sheet	56%	–	–
CS Hammam-Lif clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 20.0%

0123450 14.0 9.2 2.5 1 20.0 10.1 3.2 2 13.0 7.3 2.2 3 6.1 3.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ES Sahel down, CS Hammam-Lif across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,037 Ligue 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.3% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

ES Sahel at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). CS Hammam-Lif away: 0.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for ES Sahel, 0.58 for CS Hammam-Lif. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Ligue 1

ES SAHEL

WLLWDL1–0 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

CS HAMMAM-LIF

DLLLLL0–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ES Tunis	5	+3	12
2	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	5	+4	11
3	US Ben Guerdane	5	+3	11
4	US Monastirienne	5	+2	9
5	Club Africain	4	+2	9
6	CS Sfaxien	5	+2	8
7	CA Bizertin	5	0	8
8	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	4	+1	7
9	Stade Tunisien	3	+1	4
10	ES Sahel	4	−1	4
11	AS Marsa	4	−1	4
12	ES Zarzis	4	−2	3
13	ES Metlaoui	4	−2	3
14	Olympique Béja	5	−4	2
15	ES Hammam-Sousse	4	−4	1
16	CS Hammam-Lif	4	−4	0