ES Metlaoui v Stade Tunisien prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

ES Metlaoui 1–2 Stade Tunisien STADE TUNISIEN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stade Tunisien win~~36%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.618

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.533

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stade Tunisien win at 36%.
1′KICK-OFF ES Metlaoui v Stade Tunisien
2′Much as we predicted: Stade Tunisien was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 29–36–35
4′Much as we predicted: Stade Tunisien was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 34% now. 0–0 · 29–37–34
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Stade Tunisien win 32%)
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' ES Metlaoui 1–0 Stade Tunisien
45′41′ and it is 1–0: C. Bodian on the scoresheet for ES Metlaoui. 1–0 · 75–21–5
45′HALF-TIME ES Metlaoui 1–0 Stade Tunisien
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Stade Tunisien win: 36% at kick-off, 5% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' ES Metlaoui win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 21%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Stade Tunisien win: 36% at kick-off, 28% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was ES Metlaoui win 24%)
46′SECOND HALF ES Metlaoui 1–0 Stade Tunisien
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Stade Tunisien win: 36% at kick-off, 5% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' ES Metlaoui win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Stade Tunisien win 5%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Stade Tunisien win: 36% at kick-off, 5% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' ES Metlaoui win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Stade Tunisien win 5%)
70′⚽ GOAL · 41' ES Metlaoui 1–0 Stade Tunisien · C. Bodian
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' ES Metlaoui 1–1 Stade Tunisien
90′⚽ GOAL · 101' ES Metlaoui 1–2 Stade Tunisien
FTFULL TIME ES Metlaoui 1–2 Stade Tunisien
FTES Metlaoui 1–2 Stade Tunisien · Stade Tunisien win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

ES Metlaoui win30%

Draw34%

Stade Tunisien win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

VenueMetlaoui Municipal stadium

Line-ups

ES Metlaoui

Stade Tunisien

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

ES Metlaoui

Stade Tunisien

28Days since last match29

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Stade Tunisien	3	+1	4
13	ES Metlaoui	4	−2	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

ES Metlaoui

Formation not confirmed

27 M. Bejaoui

15 Y. Soltani

18 O. Hichri

20 A. Ghrissi

34 M. Toumi

5 M. Belghith

8 E. Kouassi

19 C. Bodian

23 Y. Mrad

9 O. Naffati

14 B. Nana

Coach · Amine Gara

Substitutes

1 · S. Yeddes

4 · M. Bouzaabya

29 · A. Tlili

10 · I. Hermes

17 · O. Chebbi

28 · M. Ourimi

7 · B. Hajji

11 · A. Jouini

Stade Tunisien

Formation not confirmed

22 N. Farhati

3 A. Saihi

19 F. Abdi

24 R. Derbali

25 S. Sghaier

6 P. Diop

8 Y. Saafi

34 M. Thioune

7 W. Ouerghemmi

9 A. N'Diaye

20 B. Hmidi

Coach · Toze Marreco

Substitutes

16 · A. Dkhili

5 · M. Jelassi

12 · Y. Oumarou

17 · R. Riahi

21 · Y. Toure

11 · F. Ben Youssef

14 · B. Camara

18 · M. Khemissi

29 · Y. Dhaflaoui

Our number · stade tunisien winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

36% The market41%

Us36%

~~Market~~41%

We make Stade Tunisien a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · stade tunisien win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ES Metlaoui win	30%	27%	+4
Draw	34%	33%	+1
Stade Tunisien win	36%	41%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	21%	32%	−11
Both teams to score	28%	40%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	46%	58%	−12
Over 3.5 goals	8%	15%	−7
ES Metlaoui or draw	64%	59%	+5
ES Metlaoui clean sheet	44%	–	–
Stade Tunisien clean sheet	48%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.2%

0123450 20.2 18.1 7.2 2.1 1 16.1 11.6 5.2 2 5.7 4.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ES Metlaoui down, Stade Tunisien across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,037 Ligue 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.3% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ES Metlaoui at home: 0.67 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Stade Tunisien away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.74 goals for ES Metlaoui, 0.84 for Stade Tunisien. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ESM 0–0 STA · STA 2–0 ESM · ESM 0–0 STA · STA 1–0 ESM

Form · last six in Ligue 1

ES METLAOUI

LDLLWL0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

STADE TUNISIEN

LDWDLW0–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ES Tunis	5	+3	12
2	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	5	+4	11
3	US Ben Guerdane	5	+3	11
4	US Monastirienne	5	+2	9
5	Club Africain	4	+2	9
6	CS Sfaxien	5	+2	8
7	CA Bizertin	5	0	8
8	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	4	+1	7
9	Stade Tunisien	3	+1	4
10	ES Sahel	4	−1	4
11	AS Marsa	4	−1	4
12	ES Zarzis	4	−2	3
13	ES Metlaoui	4	−2	3
14	Olympique Béja	5	−4	2
15	ES Hammam-Sousse	4	−4	1
16	CS Hammam-Lif	4	−4	0