ES Metlaoui v ES Zarzis prediction · Ligue 1

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Close to call, with ES Metlaoui just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: ES Metlaoui 37%, draw 30%, ES Zarzis 33%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on ES Metlaoui v ES ZarzisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

ES Metlaoui win37%

Draw30%

ES Zarzis win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueMetlaoui Municipal stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ES Metlaoui

ES Zarzis

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 1 (Tunisia)

Last match: 17 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	ES Zarzis	5	0	6
14	ES Metlaoui	6	−6	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · es metlaoui winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · postponed, not graded

37% The market–

Us37%

We make ES Metlaoui a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ES Metlaoui v ES Zarzis~~0.97 – 0.91

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 3 v 6~~14 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ES Metlaoui win

Published at 38%, 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ES Metlaoui win	37%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
ES Zarzis win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	29%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	55%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
ES Metlaoui or draw	67%	–	–
ES Metlaoui clean sheet	41%	–	–
ES Zarzis clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.6%

0123450 14.6 14.7 6.3 1 15.6 12.3 6.0 2 7.2 6.4 2.9 3 2.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ES Metlaoui down, ES Zarzis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,046 Ligue 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.1% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.14 goals a meeting; 0 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ES Metlaoui at home: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). ES Zarzis away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.97 goals for ES Metlaoui, 0.91 for ES Zarzis. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.14

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 7

~~Both scored~~1 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ESZ 1–0 ESM · ESM 0–0 ESZ · ESM 0–2 ESZ · ESM 1–0 ESZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 23 Aug

ES METLAOUI

LLWLLL0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–3

ES ZARZIS

WLLLW1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	US Ben Guerdane	6	+5	14
2	ES Tunis	5	+3	12
4	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	6	+3	11
5	Club Africain	4	+2	9
6	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	6	+1	9
7	CS Sfaxien	5	+2	8
8	CA Bizertin	5	0	8
9	AS Marsa	6	+2	8
10	Stade Tunisien	4	+2	7
11	ES Sahel	6	−1	7
12	ES Zarzis	5	0	6
13	CS Hammam-Lif	6	−3	4
14	ES Metlaoui	6	−6	3
15	Olympique Béja	6	−5	2
16	ES Hammam-Sousse	6	−8	1