ES Hammam-Sousse v US Ben Guerdane prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

ES Hammam-Sousse 0–2 US Ben Guerdane ES HAMMAM-SOUSSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ES Hammam-Sousse win~~37%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.689

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.695

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ES Hammam-Sousse win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: ES Hammam-Sousse was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–31–32
1′KICK-OFF ES Hammam-Sousse v US Ben Guerdane
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' ES Hammam-Sousse
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was ES Hammam-Sousse win 33%)
28′We said ES Hammam-Sousse at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' ES Hammam-Sousse 0–1 US Ben Guerdane
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' ES Hammam-Sousse win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' US Ben Guerdane win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 23%)
29′US Ben Guerdane score on 29′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–23–68
30′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 0–1 · 9–23–69
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' ES Hammam-Sousse
37′29′: G. Ayadi on the scoresheet for US Ben Guerdane, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 7–22–70
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' ES Hammam-Sousse win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
38′We said ES Hammam-Sousse at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–22–71
38′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 0–1 · 7–22–71
45′SECOND HALF ES Hammam-Sousse 0–1 US Ben Guerdane
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' ES Hammam-Sousse 0–2 US Ben Guerdane
48′We said ES Hammam-Sousse at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
48′US Ben Guerdane find the net on 45′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–95
49′GOAL DISALLOWED · 49' US Ben Guerdane
50′HALF-TIME ES Hammam-Sousse 0–1 US Ben Guerdane
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' US Ben Guerdane
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' ES Hammam-Sousse
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' ES Hammam-Sousse 0–2 US Ben Guerdane
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' ES Hammam-Sousse
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' ES Hammam-Sousse
76′US Ben Guerdane find the net on 75′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
87′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' ES Hammam-Sousse 0–3 US Ben Guerdane
88′US Ben Guerdane find the net on 87′. 0–2 · 0–0–100
88′GOAL DISALLOWED · 88' US Ben Guerdane
96′Full time, 0–2. We called ES Hammam-Sousse at 37% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME ES Hammam-Sousse 0–2 US Ben Guerdane
FTES Hammam-Sousse 0–2 US Ben Guerdane · ES Hammam-Sousse win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ES Hammam-Sousse are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ES Hammam-Sousse 37%, draw 31%, US Ben Guerdane 32%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on ES Hammam-Sousse v US Ben GuerdaneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

ES Hammam-Sousse win37%

Draw31%

US Ben Guerdane win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueBou Ali Lahouar Stadium

Line-ups

ES Hammam-Sousse

US Ben Guerdane

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ES Hammam-Sousse

US Ben Guerdane

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 1 (Tunisia)

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 1 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	US Ben Guerdane	5	+3	11
16	ES Hammam-Sousse	5	−6	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

ES Hammam-Sousse

Formation not confirmed

2 N. El Beji

3 G. Abderrazzak

4 R. Ouni

6 Figo

11 M. A. Jarraya

13 M. Sassi

17 R. Abdallah

20 M. Baayou

29 M. A. Helal

30 M. Hazgui

33 T. Ben Zitoun

Coach · Ferid Chouchane

Substitutes

8 · A. Hssine

14 · R. Aissaoui

15 · A. Moataz

22 · M. Ben Salah

24 · O. Martin

25 · O. Tenguiano

32 · C. Nasreli

34 · I. Houli

10 · F. Ouji

US Ben Guerdane

Formation not confirmed

31 L. Hammami

4 P. Agbanou

25 S. Harrabi

20 J. Bouabcha

26 A. Amri

30 D. Oboh

8 M. Camara

7 A. M'Ghezzi Bakhouche

40 A. Ben Mcharek

10 G. Ayadi

33 N. Chachia

Coach · Sofiene Hidoussi

Substitutes

16 · M. Karkouba

15 · I. Touis

14 · M. H. Yeken

6 · G. Mounguide

19 · A. Bouatay

12 · F. Timoumi

27 · W. Salhi

21 · F. Tayechi

9 · A. Diakite

Our number · es hammam-sousse winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

37% The market35%

Us37%

~~Market~~35%

We make ES Hammam-Sousse a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ES Hammam-Sousse v US Ben Guerdane~~0.96 – 0.87

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 11~~16 v 3

~~The market · ES Hammam-Sousse win~~35% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ES Hammam-Sousse win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ES Hammam-Sousse win	37%	35%	+2
Draw	31%	34%	−3
US Ben Guerdane win	32%	32%	0
Over 2.5 goals	28%	33%	−5
Both teams to score	34%	42%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	53%	59%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	12%	17%	−5
ES Hammam-Sousse or draw	68%	68%	0
ES Hammam-Sousse clean sheet	43%	–	–
US Ben Guerdane clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.3%

0123450 15.6 14.8 6.1 1 16.3 12.0 5.6 2 7.4 6.2 2.7 3 2.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ES Hammam-Sousse down, US Ben Guerdane across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,041 Ligue 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 39 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ES Hammam-Sousse at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). US Ben Guerdane away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for ES Hammam-Sousse, 0.87 for US Ben Guerdane. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ESH 1–1 USB · USB 2–1 ESH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug

ES HAMMAM-SOUSSE

DLLLL0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2

US BEN GUERDANE

WDDWW2–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ES Tunis	5	+3	12
2	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	5	+4	11
3	US Ben Guerdane	5	+3	11
4	Club Africain	4	+2	9
6	CS Sfaxien	5	+2	8
7	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	5	+1	8
8	CA Bizertin	5	0	8
9	Stade Tunisien	4	+2	7
10	ES Zarzis	5	0	6
11	AS Marsa	5	−1	5
12	ES Sahel	5	−2	4
13	CS Hammam-Lif	5	−3	3
14	ES Metlaoui	5	−3	3
15	Olympique Béja	5	−4	2
16	ES Hammam-Sousse	5	−6	1