CS Sfaxien v ES Tunis prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CS SfaxienDrawES Tunis

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · CS Sfaxien 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CS Sfaxien are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CS Sfaxien 42%, draw 30%, ES Tunis 28%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on CS Sfaxien v ES TunisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

CS Sfaxien win42%

Draw30%

ES Tunis win28%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CS Sfaxien

ES Tunis

5Days since last match5

Last match: 24 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

Last match: 24 Oct · CAF Champions League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	ES Tunis	5	+3	12
9	CS Sfaxien	5	+2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cs sfaxien winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make CS Sfaxien a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CS Sfaxien v ES Tunis~~1.05 – 0.79

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D2 L1 · W4 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 12~~9 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CS Sfaxien win	42%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
ES Tunis win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	54%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
CS Sfaxien or draw	72%	–	–
CS Sfaxien clean sheet	46%	–	–
ES Tunis clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.3%

0123450 15.4 13.4 5.0 1 17.3 12.1 5.1 2 8.7 6.7 2.7 3 3.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CS Sfaxien down, ES Tunis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,050 Ligue 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CS Sfaxien at home: 2.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). ES Tunis away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for CS Sfaxien, 0.79 for ES Tunis. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EST 0–0 CSS · CSS 1–2 EST · EST 1–0 CSS · CSS 0–1 EST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug

CS SFAXIEN

DWDWL1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

ES TUNIS

WLWWW3–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	US Ben Guerdane	7	+6	17
2	ES Tunis	5	+3	12
4	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	6	+3	11
5	CA Bizertin	6	+2	11
6	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	7	+1	10
7	Club Africain	4	+2	9
8	AS Marsa	7	+2	9
9	CS Sfaxien	5	+2	8
10	Stade Tunisien	5	+1	7
11	ES Sahel	6	−1	7
12	ES Zarzis	5	0	6
13	CS Hammam-Lif	7	−3	5
14	Olympique Béja	7	−5	3
15	ES Metlaoui	6	−6	3
16	ES Hammam-Sousse	7	−10	1