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CA Bizertin v US Monastirienne

CA Bizertin

0–0Full time

US Monastirienne

Ligue 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Stade 15 Octobre

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

CA Bizertin 0–0 US Monastirienne US MONASTIRIENNE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTUNDER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said US Monastirienne win~~39%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.682

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.632

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said US Monastirienne win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: US Monastirienne was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 27–35–38
1′KICK-OFF CA Bizertin v US Monastirienne
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was US Monastirienne win 35%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' US Monastirienne win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
46′SECOND HALF CA Bizertin 0–0 US Monastirienne
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' US Monastirienne
63′🟨 YELLOW · 64' US Monastirienne
65′🟨 YELLOW · 66' US Monastirienne
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' CA Bizertin
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' CA Bizertin
89′🟨 YELLOW · 90' CA Bizertin
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' US Monastirienne
94′🟨 YELLOW · 95' US Monastirienne
FTFULL TIME CA Bizertin 0–0 US Monastirienne
FTCA Bizertin 0–0 US Monastirienne · US Monastirienne win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

CA Bizertin win28%

Draw33%

US Monastirienne win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

Venue · Stade 15 Octobre

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

CA Bizertin

Formation not confirmed

22 Y. Maktouf

31 M. A. Gasmi

20 M. Doukali

5 F. Akermi

26 H. Amamou

27 M. Traore

14 A. Dridi

30 A. Ferchichi

29 Z. Berrima

7 W. Chihi

15 O. Faty

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · M. Hanzouli

24 · M. Allela

13 · B. Ouni

2 · F. Bougatfa

19 · B. Mejri

28 · O. Ayinde

4 · R. Rehimi

10 · A. Chaabane

18 · M. Ba

US Monastirienne

Formation not confirmed

24 A. Slimane

2 M. Ghorbel

3 Y. Herch

13 R. Azzouz

17 A. Benga Youssouf

6 O. Diane

23 C. El Djebali

21 R. Bouchniba

15 B. Yacoub

20 S. Barhoumi

9 A. Bouassida

Coach · Romain Folz

Substitutes

1 · R. Besbes

19 · R. Boukadida

31 · M. Mehri

11 · A. Yaakoubi

30 · M. Slama

42 · M. Boussadia

29 · I. Gadiaga

12 · A. Bouzganda

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

CA Bizertin

Formation not confirmed

22 Y. Maktouf

31 M. A. Gasmi

20 M. Doukali

5 F. Akermi

26 H. Amamou

27 M. Traore

14 A. Dridi

30 A. Ferchichi

29 Z. Berrima

7 W. Chihi

15 O. Faty

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · M. Hanzouli

24 · M. Allela

13 · B. Ouni

2 · F. Bougatfa

19 · B. Mejri

28 · O. Ayinde

4 · R. Rehimi

10 · A. Chaabane

18 · M. Ba

US Monastirienne

Formation not confirmed

24 A. Slimane

2 M. Ghorbel

3 Y. Herch

13 R. Azzouz

17 A. Benga Youssouf

6 O. Diane

23 C. El Djebali

21 R. Bouchniba

15 B. Yacoub

20 S. Barhoumi

9 A. Bouassida

Coach · Romain Folz

Substitutes

1 · R. Besbes

19 · R. Boukadida

31 · M. Mehri

11 · A. Yaakoubi

30 · M. Slama

42 · M. Boussadia

29 · I. Gadiaga

12 · A. Bouzganda

Our number · us monastirienne winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

39% The market32%

Us39%

~~Market~~32%

We make US Monastirienne a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · us monastirienne win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CA Bizertin win	28%	33%	−5
Draw	33%	35%	−2
US Monastirienne win	39%	32%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	23%	29%	−7
Both teams to score	29%	39%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	47%	55%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	9%	14%	−5
CA Bizertin or draw	61%	68%	−7
CA Bizertin clean sheet	41%	–	–
US Monastirienne clean sheet	49%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.1%

0123450 19.1 18.7 8.2 2.6 1 14.8 11.6 5.7 2 5.1 4.5 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CA Bizertin down, US Monastirienne across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,033 Ligue 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.3% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CA Bizertin at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). US Monastirienne away: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.72 goals for CA Bizertin, 0.91 for US Monastirienne. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CAB 0–0 USM · USM 1–0 CAB · USM 3–1 CAB · CAB 0–0 USM

Form · last six in Ligue 1

CA BIZERTIN

LLWWDL0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2

US MONASTIRIENNE

LWDWDW0–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club Africain	3	+3	9
2	ES Tunis	4	+1	9
3	CS Sfaxien	4	+3	8
4	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	4	+3	8
5	US Ben Guerdane	4	+2	8
6	US Monastirienne	4	+2	8
7	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	4	+1	7
8	CA Bizertin	4	0	7
9	Stade Tunisien	3	+1	4
10	ES Sahel	4	−1	4
11	AS Marsa	4	−1	4
12	ES Zarzis	4	−2	3
13	ES Metlaoui	4	−2	3
14	Olympique Béja	4	−2	2
15	ES Hammam-Sousse	4	−4	1
16	CS Hammam-Lif	4	−4	0