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CA Bizertin v ES Hammam-Sousse

CA Bizertin

3–1Full time

ES Hammam-Sousse

Ligue 1 · FRI 23 OCT · Stade 15 Octobre

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 17:02

CA Bizertin 3–1 ES Hammam-Sousse CA BIZERTIN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CA Bizertin win~~51%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.370

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.282

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CA Bizertin win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: CA Bizertin 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–30–20
1′KICK-OFF CA Bizertin v ES Hammam-Sousse
12′A goal for CA Bizertin on 12′. 0–0 · 48–33–19
13′We said CA Bizertin at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–4
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' CA Bizertin 1–0 ES Hammam-Sousse
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' CA Bizertin win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
32′The goal count is tracking the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 82–15–3
33′ES Hammam-Sousse find the net on 33′. 1–0 · 82–14–3
35′⚽ GOAL · 33' CA Bizertin 1–1 ES Hammam-Sousse
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' CA Bizertin win: 51% at kick-off, 40% now
37′We said CA Bizertin at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–44–17
37′M. A. Jarraya scores for ES Hammam-Sousse on 32′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 39–44–17
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was CA Bizertin win 83%)
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' CA Bizertin
45′HALF-TIME CA Bizertin 1–1 ES Hammam-Sousse
45′SECOND HALF CA Bizertin 1–1 ES Hammam-Sousse
47′🟨 YELLOW · 39' O. Tenguiano · ES Hammam-Sousse
48′We said CA Bizertin at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–50–15
48′A goal for CA Bizertin on 47′. 1–1 · 34–50–15
48′We said CA Bizertin at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' CA Bizertin 2–1 ES Hammam-Sousse
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' CA Bizertin win: 51% at kick-off, 85% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' CA Bizertin win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 50%)
50′3 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 85–13–2
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' CA Bizertin · On: A. Chaabane · Off: M. Traore
58′SUBSTITUTION · 53' CA Bizertin · On: B. Ouni · Off: R. Rehimi
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' ES Hammam-Sousse · On: F. Ouji · Off: R. Ouni
65′SUBSTITUTION · 56' ES Hammam-Sousse · On: R. Aissaoui · Off: T. Ben Zitoun
69′We said CA Bizertin at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
70′SUBSTITUTION · 64' ES Hammam-Sousse · On: O. Martin · Off: Figo
70′SUBSTITUTION · 64' ES Hammam-Sousse · On: M. Baayou · Off: A. Hssine
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' CA Bizertin win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 69' CA Bizertin · On: Z. Berrima · Off: W. Timi
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' CA Bizertin
79′SUBSTITUTION · 69' CA Bizertin · On: I. Midani · Off: W. Chihi
81′We said CA Bizertin at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' ES Hammam-Sousse · On: R. Abdallah · Off: I. Houli
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' CA Bizertin
90′ES Hammam-Sousse are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 98–2–0
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' ES Hammam-Sousse
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' CA Bizertin · On: O. Ayinde · Off: O. Faty
99′We said CA Bizertin at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
99′⚽ GOAL · 90+9' CA Bizertin 3–1 ES Hammam-Sousse
100′CA Bizertin find the net on 90′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME CA Bizertin 3–1 ES Hammam-Sousse
FTCA Bizertin 3–1 ES Hammam-Sousse · CA Bizertin win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CA Bizertin are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CA Bizertin 51%, draw 29%, ES Hammam-Sousse 20%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 30%.

The AI’s read on CA Bizertin v ES Hammam-SousseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

CA Bizertin win51%

Draw29%

ES Hammam-Sousse win20%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueStade 15 Octobre

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CA Bizertin

ES Hammam-Sousse

13Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 1 (Tunisia)

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue 1 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	CA Bizertin	5	0	8
16	ES Hammam-Sousse	6	−8	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ca bizertin winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

51% The market57%

Us51%

~~Market~~57%

We make CA Bizertin a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CA Bizertin v ES Hammam-Sousse~~1.19 – 0.61

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D2 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 8 v 1~~8 v 16

~~The market · CA Bizertin win~~57% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CA Bizertin win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CA Bizertin win	51%	57%	−6
Draw	29%	28%	+1
ES Hammam-Sousse win	20%	15%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	27%	36%	−9
Both teams to score	30%	37%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	52%	61%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	11%	18%	−7
CA Bizertin or draw	80%	85%	−5
CA Bizertin clean sheet	55%	–	–
ES Hammam-Sousse clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 20.4%

0123450 16.4 11.0 3.1 1 20.4 10.8 3.6 2 11.5 6.8 2.1 3 4.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CA Bizertin down, ES Hammam-Sousse across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,046 Ligue 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.1% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CA Bizertin at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). ES Hammam-Sousse away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for CA Bizertin, 0.61 for ES Hammam-Sousse. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ESH 1–0 CAB · CAB 2–2 ESH · ESH 0–1 CAB · CAB 2–2 ESH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 22 Aug

CA BIZERTIN

WWDLD1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

ES HAMMAM-SOUSSE

DLLLLL0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	US Ben Guerdane	6	+5	14
2	ES Tunis	5	+3	12
4	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	6	+3	11
5	Club Africain	4	+2	9
6	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	6	+1	9
7	CS Sfaxien	5	+2	8
8	CA Bizertin	5	0	8
9	AS Marsa	6	+2	8
10	Stade Tunisien	4	+2	7
11	ES Sahel	6	−1	7
12	ES Zarzis	5	0	6
13	CS Hammam-Lif	6	−3	4
14	ES Metlaoui	6	−6	3
15	Olympique Béja	6	−5	2
16	ES Hammam-Sousse	6	−8	1