AS Marsa v ES Metlaoui prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

AS Marsa 3–0 ES Metlaoui AS MARSA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AS Marsa win~~40%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.546

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.435

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AS Marsa win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: AS Marsa 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–32–29
1′KICK-OFF AS Marsa v ES Metlaoui
2′🟨 YELLOW · 2' AS Marsa
12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' ES Metlaoui
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was AS Marsa win 35%)
39′AS Marsa score on 38′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–4
39′We said AS Marsa at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–4
39′The goal count is tracking the 1.7 we expected. 1–0 · 77–18–4
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' AS Marsa 1–0 ES Metlaoui
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' AS Marsa win: 40% at kick-off, 77% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' AS Marsa win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 18%)
45′AS Marsa find the net on 45′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–0
45′We said AS Marsa at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–0
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+5' AS Marsa 2–0 ES Metlaoui
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' AS Marsa win: 40% at kick-off, 96% now
45′HALF-TIME AS Marsa 2–0 ES Metlaoui
46′SECOND HALF AS Marsa 2–0 ES Metlaoui
78′We said AS Marsa at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' AS Marsa win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 71' AS Marsa · On: A. Ben Hamida · Off: F. Iffia
84′A goal for AS Marsa on 84′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' AS Marsa 3–0 ES Metlaoui
85′3 goals already, more than the 1.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 82' AS Marsa · On: Y. Dao · Off: N. Mani
89′SUBSTITUTION · 74' ES Metlaoui · On: M. Bouzaabya · Off: M. Belghith
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90' AS Marsa · On: K. Maacha · Off: K. Khalfa
FTFULL TIME AS Marsa 3–0 ES Metlaoui
FTAS Marsa 3–0 ES Metlaoui · AS Marsa win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AS Marsa are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AS Marsa 40%, draw 32%, ES Metlaoui 29%. Over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on AS Marsa v ES MetlaouiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

AS Marsa win40%

Draw32%

ES Metlaoui win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueAbdelaziz Chtioui Stadium

Line-ups

AS Marsa

ES Metlaoui

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AS Marsa

ES Metlaoui

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 1 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	AS Marsa	5	−1	5
14	ES Metlaoui	5	−3	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

AS Marsa

Formation not confirmed

16 H. Ben Cherifia

2 M. Chaouch

34 M. Kechiche

5 O. Bahri

17 O. Jebali

21 O. Adejoh

6 K. Khalfa

8 A. Gasmi

7 F. Iffia

10 M. Hamrouni

18 N. Mani

Coach · Imed Ben Younes

Substitutes

1 · M. Ben Braiek

20 · F. Meskini

28 · A. Ben Hamida

13 · A. Traidi

25 · Y. Dao

4 · A. Wadud

24 · O. Mejri

30 · K. Maacha

12 · Y. Boukhris

ES Metlaoui

Formation not confirmed

27 M. Bejaoui

15 Y. Soltani

18 O. Hichri

20 A. Ghrissi

34 M. Toumi

5 M. Belghith

8 E. Kouassi

19 C. Bodian

23 Y. Mrad

9 O. Naffati

14 B. Nana

Coach · Amine Gara

Substitutes

16 · A. Mechri

4 · M. Bouzaabya

12 · I. Glele

26 · A. Tlili

– · Y. Sabeur

17 · O. Chebbi

28 · M. Ourimi

11 · A. Jouini

29 · I. Ogba

Our number · as marsa winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

40% The market46%

Us40%

~~Market~~46%

We make AS Marsa a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AS Marsa v ES Metlaoui~~0.96 – 0.76

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D2 L2 · W1 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 3~~11 v 14

~~The market · AS Marsa win~~46% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AS Marsa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AS Marsa win	40%	46%	−6
Draw	32%	31%	+1
ES Metlaoui win	29%	22%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	25%	33%	−8
Both teams to score	32%	39%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	50%	57%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	10%	16%	−6
AS Marsa or draw	71%	78%	−7
AS Marsa clean sheet	47%	–	–
ES Metlaoui clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.9%

0123450 17.2 14.5 5.2 1 17.9 11.8 4.9 2 8.2 6.1 2.3 3 2.7 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AS Marsa down, ES Metlaoui across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,042 Ligue 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AS Marsa at home: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). ES Metlaoui away: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for AS Marsa, 0.76 for ES Metlaoui. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ESM 1–0 ASM · ASM 0–1 ESM · ASM 1–0 ESM · ESM 3–1 ASM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 23 Aug

AS MARSA

LDLWD0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0

ES METLAOUI

LLWLL0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	US Ben Guerdane	6	+5	14
2	ES Tunis	5	+3	12
3	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	5	+4	11
4	Club Africain	4	+2	9
6	CS Sfaxien	5	+2	8
7	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	5	+1	8
8	CA Bizertin	5	0	8
9	Stade Tunisien	4	+2	7
10	ES Zarzis	5	0	6
11	AS Marsa	5	−1	5
12	ES Sahel	5	−2	4
13	CS Hammam-Lif	5	−3	3
14	ES Metlaoui	5	−3	3
15	Olympique Béja	5	−4	2
16	ES Hammam-Sousse	6	−8	1