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AS Marsa v CS Hammam-Lif

AS Marsa

1–1Full time

CS Hammam-Lif

Ligue 1 · FRI 23 OCT · Abdelaziz Chtioui Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 17:02

AS Marsa 1–1 CS Hammam-Lif AS MARSA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AS Marsa win~~42%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.705

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.738

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AS Marsa win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: AS Marsa 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–32–26
1′KICK-OFF AS Marsa v CS Hammam-Lif
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was AS Marsa win 38%)
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' AS Marsa win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' AS Marsa
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' CS Hammam-Lif
44′We said AS Marsa at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–50–20
45′The goal count is tracking the 1.7 we expected. 1–0 · 81–16–3
45′HALF-TIME AS Marsa 1–0 CS Hammam-Lif
46′SUBSTITUTION · 21' AS Marsa · On: Y. Dao · Off: N. Mani
46′SECOND HALF AS Marsa 1–0 CS Hammam-Lif
47′We said AS Marsa at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–19 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
49′A goal for AS Marsa on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
49′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' AS Marsa 1–0 CS Hammam-Lif
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+4' AS Marsa win: 42% at kick-off, 81% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+4' AS Marsa win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 53%)
50′We said AS Marsa at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–16–3
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+5' AS Marsa win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
60′We said AS Marsa at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
60′CS Hammam-Lif score on 60′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 23–62–15
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' AS Marsa 1–1 CS Hammam-Lif
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' AS Marsa win: 42% at kick-off, 23% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 62% (was AS Marsa win 85%)
61′We said AS Marsa at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–62–15
62′SUBSTITUTION · 46' CS Hammam-Lif · On: M. Mejri · Off: R. Kamergi
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' AS Marsa win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
67′We said AS Marsa at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–13
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' CS Hammam-Lif
71′SUBSTITUTION · 64' AS Marsa · On: O. Adejoh · Off: Aifia
71′SUBSTITUTION · 64' AS Marsa · On: A. Ben Hamida · Off: A. Traidi
74′We said AS Marsa at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–10
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' AS Marsa win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 69' CS Hammam-Lif · On: Oubaid · Off: H. Mhamdi
78′SUBSTITUTION · 69' CS Hammam-Lif · On: Y. Chamakhi · Off: M. Ben Tiba
81′We said AS Marsa at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' AS Marsa
89′We said AS Marsa at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–3
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' AS Marsa win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
98′🟥 RED CARD · 90+8' AS Marsa
99′AS Marsa are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 1–98–1
100′SUBSTITUTION · 84' AS Marsa · On: R. Gneba · Off: Guessmi
100′SUBSTITUTION · 84' AS Marsa · On: Abdulwadud · Off: K. Khalfa
FTFULL TIME AS Marsa 1–1 CS Hammam-Lif
FTAS Marsa 1–1 CS Hammam-Lif · AS Marsa win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AS Marsa are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AS Marsa 42%, draw 32%, CS Hammam-Lif 26%. Over 2.5 goals 24%, both teams to score 30%.

The AI’s read on AS Marsa v CS Hammam-LifBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

AS Marsa win42%

Draw32%

CS Hammam-Lif win26%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueAbdelaziz Chtioui Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AS Marsa

CS Hammam-Lif

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 1 (Tunisia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	AS Marsa	6	+2	8
13	CS Hammam-Lif	6	−3	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · as marsa winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

42% The market47%

Us42%

~~Market~~47%

We make AS Marsa a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AS Marsa v CS Hammam-Lif~~0.99 – 0.69

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 8 v 4~~9 v 13

~~The market · AS Marsa win~~47% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AS Marsa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AS Marsa win	42%	47%	−5
Draw	32%	32%	0
CS Hammam-Lif win	26%	21%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	24%	32%	−8
Both teams to score	30%	39%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	49%	57%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	9%	15%	−6
AS Marsa or draw	74%	79%	−5
AS Marsa clean sheet	51%	–	–
CS Hammam-Lif clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.1%

0123450 18.4 13.7 4.5 1 19.1 11.4 4.3 2 9.0 6.0 2.1 3 3.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AS Marsa down, CS Hammam-Lif across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,046 Ligue 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.1% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AS Marsa at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). CS Hammam-Lif away: 0.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for AS Marsa, 0.69 for CS Hammam-Lif. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ASM 1–1 CSH · CSH 0–0 ASM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 23 Aug

AS MARSA

LDLWDW0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–0

CS HAMMAM-LIF

LLLLWD0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	US Ben Guerdane	6	+5	14
2	ES Tunis	5	+3	12
4	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	6	+3	11
5	Club Africain	4	+2	9
6	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	6	+1	9
7	CS Sfaxien	5	+2	8
8	CA Bizertin	5	0	8
9	AS Marsa	6	+2	8
10	Stade Tunisien	4	+2	7
11	ES Sahel	6	−1	7
12	ES Zarzis	5	0	6
13	CS Hammam-Lif	6	−3	4
14	ES Metlaoui	6	−6	3
15	Olympique Béja	6	−5	2
16	ES Hammam-Sousse	6	−8	1