Uttaradit v Satun prediction · Thai League 2

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 14:30

Uttaradit 1–1 Satun UTTARADIT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Uttaradit win~~49%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.911

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.802

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Uttaradit win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Uttaradit was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–23–28
1′KICK-OFF Uttaradit v Satun
45′A goal for Uttaradit on 51′. 0–0 · 40–35–25
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Uttaradit win: 49% at kick-off, 40% now
47′Satun find the net on 45′. 0–0 · 40–36–25
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Uttaradit win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
FTFULL TIME Uttaradit 1–1 Satun
FTUttaradit 1–1 Satun · Uttaradit win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Uttaradit are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Uttaradit 49%, draw 23%, Satun 28%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Uttaradit v SatunBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Uttaradit win49%

Draw23%

Satun win28%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueUttaradit Provincial Sport Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Uttaradit

Satun

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Uttaradit	5	+4	11
5	Satun	5	+3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · uttaradit winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

49% The market43%

Us49%

~~Market~~43%

We make Uttaradit a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Uttaradit v Satun~~1.88 – 1.35

~~Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D2 L0 · W3 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 9~~2 v 5

~~The market · Uttaradit win~~43% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · uttaradit win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Uttaradit win	49%	43%	+6
Draw	23%	27%	−4
Satun win	28%	29%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	62%	52%	+11
Both teams to score	62%	56%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	83%	75%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	41%	31%	+9
Uttaradit or draw	72%	71%	+2
Uttaradit clean sheet	26%	–	–
Satun clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.6 5.1 3.7 1 7.1 10.2 6.6 3.0 2 6.9 9.1 6.1 2.8 3 4.4 5.7 3.9 4 2.1 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Uttaradit down, Satun across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,596 Thai League 2 matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Uttaradit at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Satun away: 3.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Uttaradit, 1.35 for Satun. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 4 Sept

UTTARADIT

DWDWW0–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 4–3 · 3–2

SATUN

LWWLW2–4 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 3–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nong Bua Pitchaya	6	+4	11
2	Uttaradit	5	+4	11
3	Chainat	5	+2	10
4	Phrae United	6	+1	10
5	Satun	5	+3	9
6	Khon Kaen United	5	+3	9
7	Kanchanaburi	6	+2	9
8	Chiangmai United	6	+1	9
9	Muang Loei United	6	+3	8
10	Chanthaburi	6	+3	8
11	Esan Pattaya	6	−4	8
12	Police Tero	6	−2	7
13	Nakhon Pathom	6	−2	7
14	Muangthong United	6	−3	7
15	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	6	−1	6
16	Songkhla	6	−2	5
17	Kasetsart FC	6	−6	4
18	Mahasarakham United	6	−6	3