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Uttaradit v Nakhon Pathom

Uttaradit
2–0Full time
Nakhon Pathom

Thai League 2 · SAT 24 OCT · Uttaradit Provincial Sport Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33
Uttaradit 2–0 Nakhon Pathom UTTARADIT WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Uttaradit win51%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.355
The market’s Brier score0.320

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Uttaradit win at 51%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Uttaradit was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–27–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Uttaradit v Nakhon Pathom
  4. 18′Uttaradit find the net on 17′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–6
  5. 18′We published Uttaradit at 51%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–6
  6. 18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Uttaradit 1–0 Nakhon Pathom
  7. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Uttaradit win: 51% at kick-off, 79% now
  8. 31′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
  9. 36′We published Uttaradit at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
  10. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Uttaradit win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Uttaradit 1–0 Nakhon Pathom
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Uttaradit 1–0 Nakhon Pathom
  13. 64′We published Uttaradit at 51%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  14. 76′We published Uttaradit at 51%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  15. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Uttaradit win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
  16. 83′A goal for Uttaradit on 83′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  17. 83′We published Uttaradit at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  18. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Uttaradit 2–0 Nakhon Pathom
  19. FTFULL TIME Uttaradit 2–0 Nakhon Pathom
  20. FTUttaradit 2–0 Nakhon Pathom · Uttaradit win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Uttaradit are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Uttaradit 51%, draw 27%, Nakhon Pathom 22%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Uttaradit v Nakhon PathomBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Uttaradit win51%
Draw27%
Nakhon Pathom win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueUttaradit Provincial Sport Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Uttaradit

Nakhon Pathom

6Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Thai League 2

Last match: 20 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Uttaradit7+312
10Nakhon Pathom7−110

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · uttaradit winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:18 · locked at kick-off
51% The market54%
Us51%
Market54%

We make Uttaradit a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Uttaradit v Nakhon Pathom1.54 – 0.90
Form · last six in Thai League 2 this season · since 13 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 12 v 103 v 10
The market · Uttaradit win54% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:57
Our probability · Uttaradit win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Uttaradit win51%54%−3
Draw27%25%+2
Nakhon Pathom win22%21%+1
Over 2.5 goals44%50%−6
Both teams to score46%51%−5
Over 1.5 goals70%73%−3
Over 3.5 goals23%29%−6
Uttaradit or draw78%79%−1
Uttaradit clean sheet41%––
Nakhon Pathom clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%
0123450 9.8 7.4 3.6 1 12.9 12.3 5.3 2 10.2 8.9 4.0 3 5.3 4.6 2.1 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Uttaradit down, Nakhon Pathom across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Thai League 2 this season · since 13 Sept

UTTARADIT

WDWWDL2–0 · 2–2 · 4–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–3

NAKHON PATHOM

DDDWLW0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 4–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Khon Kaen United7+615
2Chainat7+213
3Uttaradit7+312
4Nong Bua Pitchaya7+311
5Satun7+311
6Kanchanaburi7+210
7Chiangmai United7+110
8Police Tero7010
9Phrae United7010
10Nakhon Pathom7−110
11Muang Loei United7+39
12Chanthaburi7+39
13Nakhon Ratchasima FC709
14Muangthong United7−38
15Esan Pattaya7−68
16Songkhla7−26
17Mahasarakham United7−64
18Kasetsart FC7−84

The competition's standings before kick-off.