Songkhla v Phrae United prediction · Thai League 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Songkhla 1–1 Phrae United SONGKHLA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Songkhla win~~43%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.806

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.777

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Songkhla win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Songkhla was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
1′KICK-OFF Songkhla v Phrae United
41′A goal for Phrae United on 41′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–24–65
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Songkhla 0–1 Phrae United
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Songkhla win: 43% at kick-off, 12% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Phrae United win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Songkhla win 37%)
42′We said Songkhla at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–24–65
42′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 11–24–65
45′HALF-TIME Songkhla 0–1 Phrae United
46′SECOND HALF Songkhla 0–1 Phrae United
49′We said Songkhla at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67
66′We said Songkhla at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Songkhla win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
80′Songkhla score on 79′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 13–76–10
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Songkhla 1–1 Phrae United
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Songkhla win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Phrae United win 86%)
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Songkhla win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME Songkhla 1–1 Phrae United
FTSongkhla 1–1 Phrae United · Songkhla win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Songkhla are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Songkhla 43%, draw 27%, Phrae United 30%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Songkhla v Phrae UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Songkhla win43%

Draw27%

Phrae United win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueTinsulanonda Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Songkhla

Phrae United

3Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

Last match: 17 Oct · Thai League 2

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Phrae United	7	0	10
16	Songkhla	7	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · songkhla winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

43% The market40%

Us43%

~~Market~~40%

We make Songkhla a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Songkhla v Phrae United~~1.45 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Thai League 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 10~~16 v 9

~~The market · Songkhla win~~40% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Songkhla win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Songkhla win	43%	40%	+3
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Phrae United win	30%	32%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	48%	49%	−1
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	72%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Songkhla or draw	70%	68%	+2
Songkhla clean sheet	32%	–	–
Phrae United clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.2 8.0 5.0 1 10.0 12.7 7.0 2.8 2 7.6 8.7 5.0 3 3.7 4.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Songkhla down, Phrae United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,607 Thai League 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Songkhla at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Phrae United away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Songkhla, 1.17 for Phrae United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SON 0–0 PHR · PHR 1–1 SON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Thai League 2 this season · since 12 Sept

SONGKHLA

LWDLLD1–3 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–1

PHRAE UNITED

DLWWWL0–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khon Kaen United	7	+6	15
2	Chainat	7	+2	13
3	Uttaradit	7	+3	12
4	Nong Bua Pitchaya	7	+3	11
5	Satun	7	+3	11
6	Kanchanaburi	7	+2	10
7	Chiangmai United	7	+1	10
8	Police Tero	7	0	10
9	Phrae United	7	0	10
10	Nakhon Pathom	7	−1	10
11	Muang Loei United	7	+3	9
12	Chanthaburi	7	+3	9
13	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	7	0	9
14	Muangthong United	7	−3	8
15	Esan Pattaya	7	−6	8
16	Songkhla	7	−2	6
17	Mahasarakham United	7	−6	4
18	Kasetsart FC	7	−8	4