Satun v Khon Kaen United prediction · Thai League 2

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Satun 1–0 Khon Kaen United SATUN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Satun win~~48%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.404

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.616

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Satun win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF Satun v Khon Kaen United
3′Much as we predicted: Satun was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–22–29
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Satun 1–0 Khon Kaen United
19′Satun ahead on 8′ through S. Caio. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–17–12
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Satun win: 48% at kick-off, 71% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Satun win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Satun win: 48% at kick-off, 71% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Satun win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
21′Satun ahead on 8′ through S. Caio. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–17–11
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Satun win: 48% at kick-off, 71% now
40′We published Satun at 48%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–9
41′We published Satun at 48%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–9
45′HALF-TIME Satun 1–0 Khon Kaen United
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Satun win: 48% at kick-off, 73% now
46′SECOND HALF Satun 1–0 Khon Kaen United
53′⚽ GOAL · 8' Satun 1–0 Khon Kaen United · S. Caio
FTFULL TIME Satun 1–0 Khon Kaen United
FTSatun 1–0 Khon Kaen United · Satun win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Satun win48%

Draw23%

Khon Kaen United win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueSatun Provincial Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Satun

Khon Kaen United

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khon Kaen United	4	+4	9
11	Satun	4	+2	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · satun winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

48% The market36%

Us48%

~~Market~~36%

We make Satun a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · satun win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Satun win	48%	36%	+12
Draw	23%	29%	−7
Khon Kaen United win	29%	35%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	66%	54%	+12
Both teams to score	66%	59%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	85%	77%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	45%	35%	+10
Satun or draw	71%	65%	+6
Satun clean sheet	23%	–	–
Khon Kaen United clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.0 4.5 3.6 1 6.1 9.6 6.7 3.4 2 6.2 8.8 6.4 3.2 3 4.0 5.7 4.2 2.1 4 2.0 2.9 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Satun down, Khon Kaen United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Thai League 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Satun at home: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 2). Khon Kaen United away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Satun, 1.48 for Khon Kaen United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Thai League 2

SATUN

LWWL2–4 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 3–4

KHON KAEN UNITED

WDWWLW1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khon Kaen United	4	+4	9
2	Chiangmai United	5	+3	9
3	Muang Loei United	5	+4	8
4	Uttaradit	4	+3	8
5	Nong Bua Pitchaya	4	+2	7
6	Nakhon Pathom	5	+1	7
7	Phrae United	5	0	7
8	Chainat	4	0	7
9	Police Tero	5	−1	7
10	Muangthong United	5	−2	7
11	Satun	4	+2	6
12	Kanchanaburi	5	+1	6
13	Songkhla	4	+1	5
14	Esan Pattaya	5	−5	5
15	Chanthaburi	4	0	4
16	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	5	−2	3
17	Mahasarakham United	4	−3	3
18	Kasetsart FC	5	−8	1