Satun v Chanthaburi prediction · Thai League 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Satun 0–0 Chanthaburi SATUN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Satun win~~52%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.897

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.736

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Satun win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Satun was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–24
1′KICK-OFF Satun v Chanthaburi
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Satun win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
45′HALF-TIME Satun 0–0 Chanthaburi
46′SECOND HALF Satun 0–0 Chanthaburi
47′We said Satun at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–38–21
49′We said Satun at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–40–21
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Satun win 37%)
55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 36–44–20
59′We said Satun at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Satun win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
67′We said Satun at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–17
73′We said Satun at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–14
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Satun win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
77′We said Satun at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–69–12
82′We said Satun at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–79–8
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Satun win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
86′We said Satun at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
92′We said Satun at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
FTFULL TIME Satun 0–0 Chanthaburi
FTSatun 0–0 Chanthaburi · Satun win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Satun are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Satun 52%, draw 24%, Chanthaburi 24%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Satun v ChanthaburiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Satun win52%

Draw24%

Chanthaburi win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueSatun Provincial Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Satun

Chanthaburi

3Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · Thai League 2

Last match: 14 Oct · Thai League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Satun	6	+3	10
13	Chanthaburi	6	+3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · satun winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 05:00 · locked at kick-off

52% The market32%

Us52%

~~Market~~32%

We make Satun a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 20 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Satun v Chanthaburi~~1.75 – 1.10

~~Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 8~~4 v 13

~~The market · Satun win~~32% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Satun win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Satun win	52%	32%	+20
Draw	24%	30%	−6
Chanthaburi win	24%	38%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	54%	45%	+9
Both teams to score	55%	51%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	78%	69%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	32%	25%	+7
Satun or draw	76%	62%	+14
Satun clean sheet	34%	–	–
Chanthaburi clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.6 6.0 3.6 1 9.7 11.4 6.0 2.2 2 8.8 9.4 5.2 3 5.2 5.5 3.0 4 2.3 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Satun down, Chanthaburi across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,603 Thai League 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Satun at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Chanthaburi away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Satun, 1.10 for Chanthaburi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 5 Sept

SATUN

LWWLWD2–4 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 3–4 · 1–0 · 1–1

CHANTHABURI

LDWLDW0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uttaradit	6	+4	12
2	Khon Kaen United	6	+4	12
3	Nong Bua Pitchaya	7	+3	11
4	Satun	6	+3	10
5	Kanchanaburi	7	+2	10
6	Chiangmai United	7	+1	10
7	Chainat	6	+1	10
8	Police Tero	7	0	10
9	Phrae United	7	0	10
10	Nakhon Pathom	7	−1	10
11	Muang Loei United	7	+3	9
12	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	7	0	9
13	Chanthaburi	6	+3	8
14	Esan Pattaya	6	−4	8
15	Muangthong United	6	−3	7
16	Songkhla	7	−2	6
17	Kasetsart FC	7	−8	4
18	Mahasarakham United	6	−6	3