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Police Tero v Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Police Tero

1–1Full time

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Thai League 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Boonyachinda Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10

Police Tero 1–1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC POLICE TERO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Police Tero win~~41%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.833

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.729

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Police Tero win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Police Tero was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–34
1′KICK-OFF Police Tero v Nakhon Ratchasima FC
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Police Tero 1–0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC
41′37′ and it is 1–0: W. Saenruecha on the scoresheet for Police Tero. 1–0 · 70–21–9
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Police Tero win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
45′We published Police Tero at 41%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–21–8
45′HALF-TIME Police Tero 1–0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Police Tero win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
46′SECOND HALF Police Tero 1–0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC
64′We published Police Tero at 41%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–19–4
84′We published Police Tero at 41%. Our model now makes it 92%. 1–0 · 92–7–0
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Police Tero win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Police Tero 1–1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC
FTFULL TIME Police Tero 1–1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC
FTPolice Tero 1–1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC · Police Tero win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Police Tero win41%

Draw26%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:30

Venue · Boonyachinda Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · police tero winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

41% The market37%

Us41%

~~Market~~37%

We make Police Tero a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · police tero win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Police Tero win	41%	37%	+3
Draw	26%	30%	−5
Nakhon Ratchasima FC win	34%	32%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	46%	+8
Both teams to score	57%	52%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	70%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	32%	26%	+6
Police Tero or draw	66%	68%	−1
Police Tero clean sheet	27%	–	–
Nakhon Ratchasima FC clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.8 7.4 5.3 2.4 1 8.4 11.8 7.5 3.4 2 6.6 8.4 5.5 2.5 3 3.4 4.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Police Tero down, Nakhon Ratchasima FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,581 Thai League 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.6% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Police Tero at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Police Tero, 1.35 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Thai League 2

POLICE TERO

WLWWLL2–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 0–2

NAKHON RATCHASIMA FC

WDDLDL3–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khon Kaen United	4	+4	9
2	Uttaradit	4	+3	8
3	Muang Loei United	4	+4	7
4	Nong Bua Pitchaya	4	+2	7
5	Phrae United	5	0	7
6	Chainat	4	0	7
7	Muangthong United	4	−1	7
8	Satun	4	+2	6
9	Kanchanaburi	5	+1	6
10	Chiangmai United	4	+1	6
11	Police Tero	4	−1	6
12	Songkhla	4	+1	5
13	Chanthaburi	4	0	4
14	Nakhon Pathom	4	0	4
15	Esan Pattaya	4	−5	4
16	Mahasarakham United	4	−3	3
17	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	4	−2	2
18	Kasetsart FC	4	−6	1